We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • The Indian Rupee 2020 outlook is bearish as India faces stagflation risk amid rising onion and crude oil prices. $USDINR may rise in the medium-term as the RBI defers hiking rates. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/lRrlZjAQDw https://t.co/mFv1EOYMjG
  • The $GBP may be on the cusp resuming a 12-year downtrend against the US Dollar as signs of topping emerge at pivotal chart resistance. Get oyur market update from @IlyaSpivak here:https://t.co/9rM3OjWmBA https://t.co/sUWcSFruHw
  • The $NZD may be on average at risk to further losses against its major counterparts such as the US Dollar and Japanese Yen. Where to for NZD/USD and NZD/JPY from here? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/OFjePKYdCb https://t.co/eo1c6QAVd8
  • $AUDJPY technical positioning hints prices may be on cusp of turning lower after a late-2019 bounce, recoupling with a dovish RBA policy outlook. Get your market update from @IlyaSpivak here: https://t.co/z84Y0V0ZtH https://t.co/wcIGO1emDw
  • The Japanese Yen has faded into 2020 as market risk appetite has held up and hit demand for haven assets. $USDJPY now challenges a key medium-term downtrend, but hasn’t topped it yet.Get your market update from @DavidCottleFX here:https://t.co/4X6vgCgkB7 https://t.co/FfCkGhtHsm
  • The $USD may fall against the Swedish Krona and Norwegian Krone if commentary from officials at the Davos forum uplift market mood and pressure haven-linked currencies. Get your market update from @ZabelinDimitri here:https://t.co/SZAG0yMu3d https://t.co/cBZj5tC0Ny
  • The $NZD is inching toward support guiding gains in the fourth quarter of 2019. A break may set the stage for long-term bearish trend resumption. Get your market update from @IlyaSpivak here:https://t.co/bnlx4RJ8oV https://t.co/d60YziMYnO
  • $Gld prices are poised to mark the highest weekly-close in nearly seven-years, but the bulls aren’t in the clear yet. Here are the XAU/USD levels that matter next week. Get your $XAUUSD technical analysis from @MBForex here: https://t.co/yeTH6HwncQ https://t.co/6sIpxTSNaX
  • Video https://t.co/PZeqhLumSR
  • The $USD rose as the Singapore Dollar, Malaysian Ringgit and Philippine Peso fell on coronavirus fears. What is the technical outlook for USD/IDR, USD/SGD, USD/MYR and USD/PHP? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/G3GmyOe4IT https://t.co/iq7ajeP6iv
NZD/USD Weekly Technical Perspective– Kiwi Testing Key Support Zone

NZD/USD Weekly Technical Perspective– Kiwi Testing Key Support Zone

2018-10-04 15:35:00
Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist
Share:

In this series we scale-back and take a look at the broader technical picture to gain a bit more perspective on where we are in trend. The New Zealand Dollar is trading into a critical technical support zone early in the month / quarter and our immediate focus is on a reaction off this threshold. Here are the key targets & invalidation levels that matter on the NZD/USD weekly chart.Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this setup and more.

New to Forex Trading? Get started with this Free Beginners Guide

NZD/USD Weekly Price Chart

NZD/USD Price Chart - Weekly

Notes: We’ve been tracking this descending pitchfork formation extending off the 2017 / 2018 highs in NZD/USD for months now and in out last technical update we noted that a break below the 61.8% retracement at 6717 would shift the focus towards targets at, “the median-line (currently around ~6580s) backed by the 78.6% retracement / 2015 low-week close at 6453/88- look for a larger reaction there IF reached.” Kiwi is testing this key support zone this week.

Note that the median-line now converges on this support zone and further highlights its technical significance. A break below this level would risk accelerated losses with such a scenario exposing the 2016 low at 6347 backed by the 1.618% extension at 6182. Weekly resistance now stands back at 6717 with broader bearish invalidation lowered to the upper parallel / 6854.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Bottom line:The New Zealand Dollar is trading just above key confluence support at 6453/88 and IF prices are going to post some sort of near-term recovery this would be the spot. That said, its decision time for Kiwi. From a trading standpoint, a region to be reducing / closing short exposure and lowering protective stops. We’ll be tracking near-term price action for possible signs of exhaustion as we close out the week. Keep in mind we’re just now beginning to carve out the October opening range with US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) on tap tomorrow.

Even the most seasoned traders need a reminder every now and then-Avoid these Mistakes in your trading

NZD/USD Trader Sentiment

NZD/USD Trader Sentiment
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long NZD/USD - the ratio stands at +3.19 (76.1% of traders are long) – bearish reading
  • Traders have remained net-long since September 20th; price has moved 1.9% lower since then
  • Long positions are11.9% higher than yesterday and 21.5% higher from last week
  • Short positions are 37.1% lower than yesterday and 22.0% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests NZD/USD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger NZD/USD-bearish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

See how shifts in NZD/USD retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

Relevant NZD/USD Data Releases

NZD/USD Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar– for the latest economic developments and upcoming event risk. Learn more about how we Trade the News in our Free Guide!

Previous Weekly Technical Perspectives

Learn how to Trade with Confidence in our Free Trading Guide

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex or contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.