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US Dollar Weekly Technical Perspective - DXY Battle Lines Drawn

US Dollar Weekly Technical Perspective - DXY Battle Lines Drawn

2018-10-03 16:30:00
Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist
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In this series we scale-back and take a look at the broader technical picture to gain a bit more perspective on where we are in trend. The US Dollar is up more than 2% from the September lows with the index now approaching key resistance hurdles early into the start of 4Q trade. Here are the key targets & invalidation levels that matter on the DXY weekly chart.Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this setup and more.

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DXY Weekly Price Chart

DXY Price Chart - Dollar Index Weekly

Notes: In last month’s US Dollar Weekly Price Outlook we highlighted a critical support confluence at 93.65/89 where the 2016 low-week close and the 38.2% retracement of the yearly range, “converges on the median-line of the multi-year pitchfork we’ve been tracking off the 2015 / 2017 highs.” Price registered a monthly low at 93.81 before posting a weekly reversal with the index now testing the September highs.

Immediate resistance is eyed at the 200-week moving average, currently around ~95.70s backed by the yearly high-week close / slope resistance at 96.13- a close above this threshold would be needed to keep the long-bias in play with such a scenario targeting parallel resistance (red) / yearly highs at 96.98. Key support still 93.65/89.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Bottom line: The dollar recovery is targeting initial resistance objectives early in the month / quarter. From a trading standpoint, the immediate focus is on possible price exhaustion on a push higher towards down-slope pitchfork resistance near 96.13and the 2011 parallel at 96.98 – both areas of interest into the start of the month. Keep in mind we’re just now beginning to carve out the October opening range with US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) on tap this Friday.

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex or contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com

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