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In this series we scale-back and take a look at the broader technical picture to gain a bit more perspective on where we are in trend. Euro is trading into a critical support confluence early in the month with major event risk on tap this week. Here are the key targets & invalidation levels that matter on the EUR/USD weekly chart. Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this setup and more.

New to Forex Trading? Get started with this Free Beginners Guide

EUR/USD Weekly Price Chart

EUR/USD Price Chart - Weekly

Notes: In last week’s EUR/USD Price Outlook, we highlighted the 1.1780/91 resistance barrier while noting that, “a breach / close here is still needed to fuel the next ‘leg’ higher in price.” Euro probed into this region for days (never closed above) with a final attempt post-FOMC giving way to a 2.6% sell-off in the single currency.

The decline is now testing multi-year slope support extending off the November 2015 lows (red) with the 61.8% retracement just lower highlighting a key zone at 1.1498-1.1510- we’re looking for a reaction off this mark with the immediate short-bias at risk while above. Ultimately a breach above the 1.17-handle would be needed to shift the broader focus back to the long-side.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Bottom line:Looking for signs of downside exhaustion while above 1.1498 for now. From a trading standpoint, a good spot to reduce short-exposure / lower protective stops with the near-term focus on a possible long-entries. A break / close below would invalidate the reversal play with such a scenario targeting the yearly low-week close at 1.1436 backed by the 200-week moving average / slope support at ~1.1330 and the 1.13 handle. Keep in mind we’re just now beginning to carve out the October opening range with US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) on tap this Friday.

Even the most seasoned traders need a reminder every now and then-Avoid these Mistakes in your trading

EUR/USD Trader Sentiment

EUR/USD Trader Sentiment
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long EUR/USD - the ratio stands at +1.03 (50.6% of traders are long) – extremely weak bearish / neutralreading
  • Long positions are16.0% higher than yesterday and 27.7% higher from last week
  • Short positions are 1.7% higher than yesterday and 15.1% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger EUR/USD-bearish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

See how shifts in EUR/USD retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

Relevant EUR/USD Data Releases

EUR/ USD Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar– for the latest economic developments and upcoming event risk. Learn more about how we Trade the News in our Free Guide!

Previous Weekly Technical Perspectives

Learn how to Trade with Confidence in our Free Trading Guide

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex or contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com