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  • Crude oil prices collapsed on Monday despite an OPEC+ breakthrough, driven by Covid-induced demand woes. Meanwhile, Gold is at odds with a stronger US Dollar and falling Treasury yields. Get your #crudeoil market update from @FxWestwater here:https://t.co/H1vmag8d1k https://t.co/PW5pCw9dKR
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Weekly Technical Perspective on the Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD)

Weekly Technical Perspective on the Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD)

Michael Boutros, Strategist

In this series we scale-back and take a look at the broader technical picture to gain a bit more perspective on where we are in trend. The Canadian Dollar rallied to a 15-week high against the US Dollar last week (USD/CAD lower) with a near-term recovery in price likely to offer opportunities in the days ahead. Here are the key targets & invalidation levels that matter on the USD/CAD weekly chart.Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this setup and more.

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USD/CAD Weekly Price Chart

USD/CAD Price Chart - Weekly

Notes: USD/CAD is trading just above confluence support at 1.2880- a region defined by the 38.2% retracement of the 2017 advance, the August low and the 2012 trendline. This key barrier is backed closely by the 1.2830 where 52-week moving average converges on former pitchfork resistance.

Its decision time for the Loonie - a break below these levels would be needed to suggest a more significant high is in place with such a scenario eyeing subsequent confluence support objectives at 1.2567/79 - (61.8% retracement, 2018 open and 2017 trendline support). Interim resistance stands with the yearly high-week close at 1.3130 with bearish invalidation up at the June trendline, currently ~1.3190s.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Bottom line: The risk remains weighted to the downside in USD/CAD while below 1.3130 with a break below confluence support at 1.2830 needed to fuel the next leg lower in price. That said, price is coming off support here and a near-term recovery may offer more favorable short-entries in the days ahead. From a trading standpoint, I’ll favor fading strength but tread lightly- it’s the end of the month & quarter with heavy event-risk on tap.

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USD/CAD Trader Sentiment

USD/CAD Trader Sentiment
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long USD/CAD - the ratio stands at +1.73 (63.3% of traders are long) –bearishreading
  • Traders have remained net-long since September 14th; price has moved 0.6% lower since then
  • Long positions are 8.5% lower than yesterday and 58.2% higher from last week
  • Short positions are 8.4% higher than yesterday and 10.8% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests USD/CAD prices may continue to fall. Yet, traders are less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed USD/CAD trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

See how shifts in USD/CAD retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

Relevant USD/CAD Data Releases

USD/CAD Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar– for the latest economic developments and upcoming event risk. Learn more about how we Trade the News in our Free Guide!

Previous Weekly Technical Perspectives

Learn how to Trade with Confidence in our Free Trading Guide

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex or contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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