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Weekly Technical Perspective on Crude Oil Prices (WTI)

Weekly Technical Perspective on Crude Oil Prices (WTI)

2018-09-25 15:00:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
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In this series we scale-back and take a look at the broader technical picture to gain a bit more perspective on where we are in trend. Crude oil has rallied more than 11% off the August lows with prices now approaching topside resistance targets. Here are the key targets & invalidation levels that matter on the Crude Oil weekly chart. Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this setup and more.

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Crude Oil Weekly Price Chart (WTI)

Crude Oil Price Chart - WTI - Weekly

Notes: Crude oil has continued to trade within the confines of a well-defined ascending pitchfork formation extending off the 2016 lows with prices rebounding from support at the lower parallel last month. In my previous WTI price outlook, our bottom line stated that crude prices had, “responded to key longer-term structural support and leaves the risk weighted to the topside while above 67.” The subsequent advance took out our final target at 71.14 yesterday with price now testing parallel resistance at the 50-line.

A breach above this threshold targets key resistance at 73.80/94- a region defined by the 100% extension of the August advance, the yearly high-week close, and the 2011 low. Subsequent major resistance confluences are eyed at 77.26 and 80.61/89. Weekly support rests at 67.83 with broader bullish invalidation steady at 63.63.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Bottom line: Crude prices are eyeing slope resistance here and although we could see some pullback in the days ahead, the broader focus remains weighted to the topside while within this structure. From a trading standpoint, I’ll favor fading weakness while above 69 with a breach of the yearly highs needed to fuel the next leg targeting the 2008 trendline (red). Keep in mind we’re heading into the close of the month / quarter this week- tread lightly.

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US Crude Oil Trader Sentiment

Crude Oil Trader Sentiment (WTI)
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short Crude Oil- the ratio stands at -1.18 (46.0% of traders are long) – weak bullishreading
  • Long positions are18.3% higher than yesterday and 12.7% higher from last week
  • Short positions are 25.8% higher than yesterday and 133.5% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests Crude Oil prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger Crude Oil-bullish contrarian trading bias.

See how shifts in Crude Oil retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

Relevant Crude Oil Data Releases

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Previous Weekly Technical Perspectives

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex or contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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