USD/CAD Price Outlook: Loonie Threatens Breakout on Easing Trade Tensions
- USD/CAD testing make-or-break support on heels of US Mexico Trade Deal- 1.2950 key
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The Canadian Dollar has continued to trade within the confines of the initial August opening range with news that a working US-Mexico trade deal has been negotiated sending USD/CAD to the monthly lows today in New York trade. Here are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the USD/CAD charts this week. Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this setup and more.
USD/CAD Daily Price Chart
Technical Outlook: USD/CAD is testing key confluence support today 1.2951/68 – a region defined by the monthly opening range low, the 100% extension of the decline off the yearly high, the 38.2% retracement of the 2018 range and 61.8% parallel of the ascending pitchfork extending off the yearly lows.
A daily close below this level is needed to fuel the next leg lower in price with such a scenario targeting 1.2880 backed by a key confluence at ~1.2840s where the lower parallel converges on the 200-day moving average and channel support. Daily resistance stands at the 1.31-handle with broader bearish invalidation at 1.3165.
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USD/CAD 240min Price Chart
Notes: A closer look at USD/CAD price action further highlights this support zone- the immediate decline is at risk while above this threshold but the broader focus remains lower while within this descending pitchfork formation. Look for initial resistance at the median-line backed by 1.3067 and 1.31.
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Bottom line: This is a make-or-break levels for USD/CAD near-term. From a trading standpoint, a good spot to reduce short exposure / bring in protective stops. I’ll favor fading strength sub-1.31 with a break lower targeting more significant structural support towards the lower parallel.
For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy
Most recent Foundations Session- Seeing the Forest from the Trees
USD/CAD Trader Sentiment
- A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short USD/CAD - the ratio stands at -1.04 (49.0% of traders are long) – extremely weak bullishreading
- Long positions are2.3% higher than yesterday and 18.0% lower from last week
- Short positions are 2.5% lower than yesterday and 13.5% lower from last week
- We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USD/CAD prices may continue to rise. However traders are less net-short than yesterday but more net-short from last week and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed USD/CAD trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.
See how shifts in USD/CAD retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!
Relevant USD/CAD Economic Data Releases
Other Trade Setups in Play
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- Gold Price Outlook: XAU/USD Reversal Constructive Above 1180
- EUR/USD Price Outlook: Euro Constructive Above 1.14
- AUD/USD Price Outlook: Aussie Recovery Faces Major Resistance Hurdle
- USD/CHF Price Outlook: Pending Swissy Technical Breakout
- Crude Oil Price Analysis: Sell-off Approaching Key Support Targets
- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX
Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex or contact him at firstname.lastname@example.org
DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.