We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Bitcoin
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • ECB's Lagarde: - Climate change is an important part of strategy review - Will review negative side effects of negative rates - Will aim to decide on ECB strategy by end of year
  • $EURUSD at lowest since late December https://t.co/EysVw8t9AB
  • Sounds like Draghi - how did that fare? https://t.co/gMjKEzuiZ1
  • Lagarde says work is ongoing at ECB to make sure climate risk is embedded in its risk assessment, models and forecasts
  • $EURUSD has traded within a tight range throughout the week as a cluster of DMAs contain price action. In turn, this has seen the pair struggle to consolidate above 1.1100. Get your market update from @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/TYTFtr7jQ8 https://t.co/xjtsnlSCtx
  • Lagarde says ECB is investigating how climate change considerations can be better integrated into its own portfolio
  • Lagarde says expectation is that ECB review will take a year; hopes a new strategy can be agreed around Nov/Dec
  • $USDCAD still holding on to breakout gains from yday, some short-term support showing at prior resistance. Potential for exhaustion https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/session_briefing/daily_fundamentals/2020/01/23/canadian-dollar-price-outlook-usdcad-usd-to-cad-propelled-after-loonie-breakdown-js57.html
  • RT @carstenbrzeski: #ECB assessment of underlying inflation: Oct 19: measures remain muted Dec 19: overall muted but some indications of a…
  • ECB's Lagarde says risks are tilted to the downside but less pronounced, adds that there are some signs of moderate increases in underlying inflation $EUR
EUR/USD Price Analysis: Euro Testing 1.13 – Is Relief in Sight?

EUR/USD Price Analysis: Euro Testing 1.13 – Is Relief in Sight?

2018-08-15 18:14:00
Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist
Share:

Euro is trading into fresh yearly lows today with price now testing key near-term support objectives. Here are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the EUR/USD charts. Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this setup and more.

EUR/USD Daily Price Chart

EUR/USD Daily Price Chart

Technical Outlook: In my Weekly Technical Perspective on Euro we noted that EUR/USD was, “testing a make-or-break level” early in the month with a close below 1.16 to risk substantial losses. Price is down more than 3% month-to-date with the pair responding to slope today in US Trade. We’re on the lookout for possible exhaustion at these levels with the broader short-bias vulnerable near-term while above 1.13.

New to Forex Trading? Get started with this Free Beginners Guide

EUR/USD 240min Price Chart

Please add a description for the image.

Notes: A closer look at crude price action further sees Euro posting a 4-hour outside-reversal bar off confluence support at 1.1312 where the July 17th swing low converges on slope support extending off the May lows. Long-term structural support rests just lower around~1.1274price is vulnerable for a near-term recovery off one of these levels.

Interim resistance stands at 1.1366 with near-term bearish invalidation now lowered to 1.1448- a breach above this level would be needed to suggest a more significant low is in place. A downside break sub-1.1274 keep the focus on the key 1.1164/86 support target – a region defined by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2017 advance and the measured move of the June / July consolidation break.

Why does the average trader lose? Avoid these Mistakes in your trading

Bottom line: The immediate short-bias is vulnerable heading into these support targets with a breach above 1.1448 needed clear the way for a larger recovery. From a trading standpoint, look to reduce short-exposure / bring in protective stops here and be on the lookout for signs of price exhaustion (note we’re already marking divergence into these lows). Keep in mind we get the final read on July Eurozone CPI figures tomorrow.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

EUR/USD Trader Sentiment

EUR/USD Trader Sentiment
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long EUR/USD - the ratio stands at +1.46 (59.3% of traders are long) – weak bearish reading
  • Traders have remained net-long since August1st; price has moved 2.9% lower since then
  • Long positions are 0.6% lower than yesterday and 3.3% higher from last week
  • Short positions are 5.3% lower than yesterday and 13.0% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger EUR/USD-bearish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

See how shifts in EUR/USD retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

---

Relevant EUR/USD Economic Data Releases

EUR/USD Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk. Learn more about how we Trade the News in our Free Guide!

Other Setups in Play

- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex or contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.