We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Mixed
Gold
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Notice

DailyFX PLUS Content Now Available Freely to all DailyFX Users

Real Time News
  • Commodities Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 0.42% Gold: 0.41% Oil - US Crude: -0.07% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/qdRVEtYobI
  • I am genuinely curious how Saudi Arabia got production back up so quickly. Makes it seem like they had massive spare capacity that was idled or they just ran a big garden hose around the portion of the plants that was destroyed...
  • US and Chinese 'deputies' are due to restart negotiations today. Meanwhile, the cumulative pain of tariffs continues to show through. FedEx earnings are an example. Here is $FDX overlaid with the Yuan-Dollar exchange rate (green) https://t.co/WZtuuUkhE7
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.67%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 85.67%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/T417OE2Mmy
  • $NZDUSD: A close below the low end of the zone could send NZD/USD towards 0.6136. Get your #technicalanalysis from @malkudsi here: https://t.co/i2YMDFJkRp https://t.co/TuvWNJZtgg
  • Indices Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: 0.22% Wall Street: 0.13% Germany 30: -0.04% France 40: -0.07% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/aDo9IwMads
  • Re-upping this. https://t.co/SUv8Lzbhxu
  • $USDCAD: The broader focus remains on a break of the 1.3155- 1.3355 zone for guidance on our near-term directional bias. Get your technical analysis from @MBForex here: https://t.co/q1UJdW49AW https://t.co/OR0Gl1YPIn
  • Precious Metals Update: #Gold 1,499.19 (+0.35%), #Aluminum 1,785.50 (-0.36%), and #Copper 5,814.00 (-0.12%). [delayed]
  • RT @BobOnMarkets: In other words, juts like back before forward guidance led markets to price out risk premiums and over-inflate asset pric…
AUD/USD Technical Outlook: Aussie Holds Critical Price Support

AUD/USD Technical Outlook: Aussie Holds Critical Price Support

2018-07-23 17:10:00
Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist
Share:

The Australian dollar has maintained its July opening-range just above key weekly support with a strong reversal last week threatening a larger recovery in the Aussie. Here are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter for AUD/USD heading into the close of the month. Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this setup and more.

AUD/USD Daily Price Chart

AUD/USD Daily Price Chart

Technical Outlook: In my latest Weekly Technical Perspective on the Australian Dollar, we highlighted that price was approaching key support at, “7327- a level defined by the 61.8% retracement of the 2016 advance and the May 2017 swing lows. Note that the median-line of the descending pitchfork formation has continued to govern the lows on a weekly close basis and highlights the risk to the short-side here.

Two subsequent attempts to close below this threshold have failed and keeps our focus on a break of the July opening-range for guidance with the broader short-bias still risking a larger recovery here. Daily resistance stands at 7425 with a breach / close above targeting 7491/94 backed by the 61.8% retracement / February trendline resistance at 7537.

New to Trading? Get started with this Free Beginners Guide

AUD/USD 120min Price Chart

AUD/USD 120min Price Chart

Notes: A closer look at price action sees AUD/USD trading within the confines of a newly proposed ascending pitchfork formation extending off the monthly lows. We’re looking for near-term low at 7378 or 7634 to offer possible entries with bullish invalidation set to the low-day close at 7336.

Initial resistance stands at the monthly open / May low at 7411/12 backed closely by the 61.8% Fibonacci extension at 7425- a breach there would be needed to suggest a more significant low is in place with such a scenario targeting 7456 and 7484/94.

Why does the average trader lose? Avoid these Mistakes in your trading

Bottom line: AUD/USD is responding to long-term weekly support with our near-term focus higher in price while within this formation. From a trading standpoint, I’m looking for signs of downside exhaustion to offer favorable long-entries above 7336. A break / close below 7327 would risk resumption of the broader downtrend targeting 7230. Keep I mind event risk picks up later in the week with the Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) and US 2Q GDP on tap.

Review Previous AUD/USD Techcnial Outlook

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

AUD/USD Trader Sentiment

AUD/USD Trader Sentiment
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long AUD/USD- the ratio stands at +1.42 (58.7% of traders are long) – weak bearishreading
  • Traders have remained net-long since June 5th; price has moved 1.6% lower since then
  • Long positions are3.3% higher than yesterday and 3.1% lower from last week
  • Short positions are 15.3% higher than yesterday and 15.8% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long the Australian Dollar suggests prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current AUD/USD price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.

See how shifts in AUD/USD retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

---

Relevant AUD/USD Economic Data Releases

AUD/USD Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk

Other Setups in Play

- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex or contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com

https://www.dailyfx.com/free_guide-new-to-fx.html?ref-author=Boutros

provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.