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Weekly Technical Perspective on the New Zealand Dollar (NZD/USD)

Weekly Technical Perspective on the New Zealand Dollar (NZD/USD)

2018-07-17 19:39:00
Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist
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In this series we scale-back and take a look at the broader technical picture to gain a bit more perspective on where we are in trend. Here are the key targets & invalidation levels that matter on the New Zealand Dollar vs the US Dollar (NZD/USD) weekly chart. Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this setup and more.

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NZD/USD Weekly Price Chart

NZD/USD Weekly Price Chart

Notes: The New Zealand Dollar stretched into al critical support zone last week at 6663-6717- a region defined by the 61.8% retracement of the 2015 advance and the 100% extension of the 2017 decline. Note that the median-line of the descending pitchfork formation extending off the 2017 highs and further highlights the technical significance of the threshold.

Initial resistance stands at 6855 backed by the 61.8% line / 2017 open at 6920- a level of interest for possible exhaustion IF reached. A break lower from here risks substantial Kiwi losses with such a scenario targeting the 2015 low-week close / 78.6% retracement at 6453/88.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Bottom line: Price is testing down-trend support and our final Kiwi target noted last month with the broader short-bias at risk while above 6663 near-term. From a trading standpoint, look to reduce short-exposure heading into this regions and be on the lookout for possible near-term exhaustion low. For now, there’s no clear setup up here but I’ll publish an updated NZD/USD scalp report in the days ahead once we get some more structure in near-term price-action.

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NZD/USD Trader Positioning

NZD/USD Trader Sentiment
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long NZD/USD - the ratio stands at +2.2 (41.6% of traders are long) – weak bullish reading
  • Traders have remained net-long since April 22nd; price has moved 7.9% lower since then
  • Long positions are 1.1% lower than yesterday and 5.0% lower from last week
  • Short positions are13.8% lower than yesterday and 27.0% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests NZD/USD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger NZD/USD-bearish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

See how shifts in retail NZD/USD positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

Relevant NZD/USD Data Releases

NZD/USD Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar– for the latest economic developments and upcoming event risk

Previous Weekly Technical Perspectives

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex or contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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