We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
Gold
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Bitcoin
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • The $AUD has risen in anticipation of a deal Washington and Beijing. But the Australia-China trade relationship has not suffered much and may even have been helped by China’s spat with the US. Get your market update from @DavidCottleFX here:https://t.co/An7h5X0Zcz https://t.co/Rn7mLbS1EF
  • How can traders avoid #FOMO in trading? Start by implementing a well-heeled plan taking only four hours per week. Get your insight from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/vwUShQPc27 #tradingstyle https://t.co/0Wn4xBL0AY
  • Do you know which type of stock is the right investment for you? Stock types help investors decide on specific #stocks to trade or assist with valuation methods either fundamentally or technically. Learn more about stock types here: https://t.co/yO3JalkqUU https://t.co/RoNdExHAdt
  • The status of the US #dollar as the safe-haven asset of choice remains untouched and any weakness in the greenback is likely to be short-lived. Get your $USD market update from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/LO2u38jpUT https://t.co/ctgCJSOeTH
  • #FTSE 100 testing key support as the index lacks a directional bias. #DAX reverses off channel top. Get your indices technical analysis from @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/IHF2dgMfg9 https://t.co/2fMTFlOeTR
  • With knowledge of price action, traders can perform a wide range of technical analysis functions without the necessity of any indicators, including management of risk. Build on you knowledge of price action here: https://t.co/9hQA0bsYtt https://t.co/5KQowxuiBf
  • The term ‘Ichimoku,’ literally means ‘one glance,’ in Japanese. Ichimoku, or the one glance indicator, is considered to be a self-contained system in the fact that no additional indicators are necessary. Learn more about the 'one glance' indicator here: https://t.co/T7o7W9C0Ro https://t.co/7bhBfWvEkR
  • Support and resistance are the cornerstone of technical analysis, making it the foundation that you build your knowledge on. Build a stronger foundation here: https://t.co/yXLaRpl90I https://t.co/85JHunf2Xf
  • Many traders ask how a trading method that is 77 years old is applicable today. Learn about the Gartley pattern and see how you can incorporate it into your trading style here: https://t.co/2yPmGH0XvT https://t.co/rtqUKZSdn1
  • Recessions can devastate the economy and disrupt the fortunes of individuals, businesses, and investors. But economic decline in the business cycle is inevitable, and your trading can be defined by how you respond to crisis. learn how to prepare here: https://t.co/e4CnobJCss https://t.co/ywv7RVP9qY
Weekly Technical Perspective on the Aussie (AUD/USD)

Weekly Technical Perspective on the Aussie (AUD/USD)

2018-06-13 16:30:00
Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist
Share:

In this series we scale-back and take a look at the broader technical picture to gain a bit more perspective on where we are in trend. Here are the key levels that matter on the weekly chart for the Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) heading into the close of a big week of event risk. The weekly close will be critical here as Aussie probes key resistance levels. Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this setup and more.

New to Forex Trading? Get started with this Free Beginners Guide

AUD/USD Weekly Price Chart

AUD/USD Weekly Price Chart

Notes: In last month’s AUD/USD Weekly Technical Perspective, we noted that the Aussie rebound was targeting, “initial resistance up towards 7636- a breach there would be needed to suggest that a larger reversal is underway / a more significant low is in place. A weekly close below 7480 would mark resumption for the broader downtrend with such a scenario targeting 7327. As noted in today’s webinar, for now, I’m willing to trade the long-side targeting slope resistance.

Aussie registered a high at 7677 before pulling back sharply to close the week below the 76-handle (note the nearly perfect tag of former channel support extending off the 2016 low / 200-week moving average). So was that the high?

The verdict is still out but topside levels to keep in mind heading into the close of the month are the measured objective at 7709 and pitchfork resistance / 52-week moving average at 7760s. Both of these levels represent areas of interest for possible exhaustion IF indeed Aussie is going to hold this formation. Key support remains at 7481 with a break / close below needed to mark resumption of the broader down trend. Broader bearish invalidation remains steady with the yearly open at 7801.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Bottom line: The potential for a larger recovery remains while above the yearly low-week close at 7541 but we’re generally on the lookout for topside exhaustion on this stretch higher. From a trading standpoint, the immediate threat may still be higher for the Aussie in the days ahead but ultimately I’ll favor fading strength closer to structural resistance.

AUD/USD IG Client Positioning

AUD/USD Trader Sentiment
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long AUD/USD- the ratio stands at +1.36 (57.6% of traders are long) – bearish reading
  • Traders have remained net-long since June 5th; price has moved 1.4% lower since then
  • Long positions are 3.5% higher than yesterday and 1.2% lower from last week
  • Short positions are 8.7% lower than yesterday and 1.1% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests AUD/USD prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are more net-long than yesterday but less net-long from last week and the combination of current positioning& recent changes gives us a further mixed Aussie trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

Even the most seasoned traders need a reminder every now and then-Avoid these Mistakes in your trading

Economic Calendar– for the latest economic developments and upcoming event risk

Previous Weekly Technical Perspectives

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex or contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.