News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Knowing how to accurately value a stock enables traders to identify and take advantage of opportunities in the stock market. Find out the difference between a stock's market and intrinsic value, and the importance of the two here: https://t.co/QszmdZFxlk https://t.co/WQLZ1X7gIY
  • but the next major point in my view to monitor will be 52.76 - at least in the short term.
  • #Brent having broken above the pre-OPEC drop off at 45.51 is a huge deal considering it failed to crack resistance there in August (leading to the invalidation of "uptrend 2") and the psychological significance of that level https://t.co/LkEyRxFhnq
  • The New Zealand Dollar looks poised to extend its push higher against its haven-associated counterparts on robust economic data and a less dovish stance from the RBNZ. Get your $NZD market update from @DanielGMoss here:https://t.co/vytr4OR1Jy https://t.co/ZcxEUWIm8O
  • It seems the markets are riding high, but risk is always lurking around the corner. Consider your escape plan before you find yourself in collapsing market. What are the top havens for different conditions in 2020? Find out from @JohnKicklighter here: https://t.co/1oeXWEsJkb https://t.co/x8uyOHLtgE
  • The Swiss Franc may continue higher against the US Dollar as technical pressure favors USD/CHF bears..Get your $USDCHF market update from @FxWestwater here:https://t.co/yqJbbhAWiu https://t.co/CaMR0Vqd1m
  • The US Dollar lost ground to most ASEAN currencies as Emerging Market assets climbed despite US economic woes. USD/INR is eyeing third-quarter Indian GDP at the end of the week. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/urDN2b5Nwd https://t.co/toSDbVZCSi
  • The global stock market can be categorized into specific groups or ‘stock market sectors’. Organizing the vast number of stocks in this way helps traders to view assets in a more manageable way. Get your stock market sectors basics here: https://t.co/5gbiHmY8yl https://t.co/mQ6ty8Yalv
  • The Euro looks poised to continue gaining ground against haven-associated currencies and may reverse higher against the British Pound in the near term. Get your #Euro market update from @DanielGMoss here:https://t.co/oRIHju7ZzK https://t.co/dIEErVzWEY
  • Gold and silver prices have come under significant pressure recently. However, this correction lower could prove short-lived as price analysis hints at a reversal higher. Get your $XAUUSD market update from @DanielGMoss here:https://t.co/K1qL0fsGwy https://t.co/tRfjlN6X22
EUR/USD Technical Outlook: Are the Euro Tides Shifting?

EUR/USD Technical Outlook: Are the Euro Tides Shifting?

2018-05-22 17:00:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
Share:

Euro has plummeted more than 6% off the yearly highs with the decline now testing an area of confluent support which could offer a near-term reprieve to the recent sell-off. That said, the focus is on a break of the 1.1709-1.1827 range for guidance with the broader downside bias at risk near-term.

EUR/USD Daily Price Chart

EUR/USD Price Chart - Daily Timeframe

Technical Outlook: In last week’s Euro Technical Perspective we noted that, “The immediate EUR/USD decline is at risk” as price was, “approaching confluence support around 1.1709/45 where the 38.2% retracement of the late-2016 advance converges on a parallel of the dominant slope extending of the November low.” Price registered a low yesterday at 1.1717 before rebounding higher on building momentum divergence and highlights the near-term threat for a larger recovery.

Initial resistance is eyed at 1.1827 and a daily close above this threshold (with and RSI recovery above 30) would suggest a more significant low may be in place. A break lower from here invalidates the reversal play with such a scenario targeting the 2016 high at 1.1616 backed closely by median-line support.

New to Forex Trading? Get started with this Free Beginners Guide

EUR/USD 240min Price Chart

EUR/USD Price Chart - 240min Timeframe

Notes: A closer look at Euro price action sees the pair trading within the confines of descending pitchfork formation with price rebounding off parallel support extending off the 5/8 low (red). Note that the drop into 1.1753 achieves the broader measured objective of the February – April consolidation break and IF price is going to rebound, this would be a good spot.

Why does the average trader lose? Avoid these Mistakes in your trading

Bottom line: Euro is testing the confluence of near-term down-trend AND longer-term uptrend support here and we’re on the lookout for downside exhaustion / recovery in price while above 1.1709. A breach above 1.1827 targets 1.1897 backed by the 50-line (~1.1950s) and the upper parallel / yearly open at 1.2005.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

EUR/USD IG Client Positioning

EUR/USD Client Sentiment
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long EURUSD- the ratio stands at +1.2 (54.5% of traders are long) – weak bearishreading
  • Retail has remained net-long since April 30th; price has moved 2.8% lower since then
  • Long positions are 3.1% higher than yesterday and 3.6% higher from last week
  • Short positions are 2.4% lower than yesterday and 12.5% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EURUSD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger EURUSD-bearish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

See how shifts in EUR/USD retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

---

Relevant Data Releases

EUR/USD Economic Calendar

DailyFX Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk

Other Setups in Play

- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex or contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES