We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The $SGD is driven by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, which manages exchange rate instead of short-term interest rates. Learn more on the SGD and how to trade it. Get your SGD market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/eWLM9XZs5Y https://t.co/HdiCLtSFre
  • #Bitcoin prices may see a pickup in volatility ahead of the 2020 halving as the #coronavirus pandemic threatens to disrupt cross-continental $BTC mining operations. Get your market update from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/BoH24MVf4P https://t.co/4bgTwNqVvG
  • (Weekly Outlook) The Japanese #Yen faced a mixed week against currencies such as the US Dollar, Euro, British Pound and Canadian Dollar. What is ahead for $USDJPY, $EURJPY, $GBPJPY and $CAD/JPY? - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/fx_technical_weekly/2020/04/04/Japanese-Yen-Weekly-Forecast-USDJPY-EURJPY-GBPJPY-CADJPY.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/Flgbd5b2ag
  • Foreign exchange – or “#forex” – markets often pay close attention to politics and central bank policy. We offer a model for traders to gauge their impact on exchange rates. Get your market insight from @ZabelinDimitri and @CVecchioFX here: https://t.co/FbXc1Awu6a https://t.co/Qbhs4ndgPa
  • Why must financial market traders monitor both monetary and fiscal policy? Find out from @MartinSEssex here: https://t.co/Fkzk88Y5gm https://t.co/AldbSctm9V
  • Do you know how to properly Identify a double top formation? Double tops can enhance technical analysis when trading both forex or stocks, making the pattern highly versatile in nature. Learn more about the double top formation here: https://t.co/yF133btXFd https://t.co/Sjnr0iVgAf
  • Upside momentum stalls with the #DAX and #FTSE 100 vulnerable to testing lower levels as the economic backdrop deteriorates further. Get your #equities technical analysis from @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/BFIaXTfDcs https://t.co/q0Mso4zWlT
  • RT @iv_technicals: *TRUMP SAYS HE'D USE TARIFFS IF NEEDED TO PROTECT OIL INDUSTRY - BBG #OOTT #WTI $USO
  • After the pattern is composed with the closing of the signal candle, then you can look to the following candle to identify a clear bias and risk points. Learn how to apply this knowledge to a trading strategy here: https://t.co/uh3NwgHBVv https://t.co/yl4KUMNmUh
  • Asia’s vast and growing importance to the world economy is not yet matched by the presence of a currency trading center to rival the established order. Get your update on market drivers in Asia here: https://t.co/r3Ku0p9dw1 https://t.co/CU5vMilpLH
Weekly Technical Perspective on NZD/USD, GBP/USD and EUR/NZD

Weekly Technical Perspective on NZD/USD, GBP/USD and EUR/NZD

2018-04-16 17:30:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
Share:

In this series we scale-back and take a look at the broader technical picture to gain a bit more perspective on where we are in trend. Here are the key levels that matter on the weekly charts for the NZD/USD, GBP/USD and EUR/NZD. Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of these setups and more.

Check out our New 2018 projectionsin our Free DailyFX Trading Forecasts

NZD/USD Weekly Price Chart

NZD/USD Price Chart - Weekly Timeframe

Notes: Last month we noted that the New Zealand Dollar had,continued to consolidate below the January highs at 7436 with the 200-week moving average catching the closes on the downside over the past few months. I’m looking for a resolution to this key price range over the coming weeks with key support (bullish invalidation) eyed at 7094-7140.”

Price registered a low 7153 before turning higher with the advance now eyeing range resistance at 7390 (yearly high-close) and 7437 (yearly high)- note that the upper median-line parallel of the descending pitchfork (blue) AND the objective yearly opening-range high converge on this zone and weekly breach/ close would be needed to validate a larger breakout in Kiwi.

Bottom Line: Price is approaching confluence down-trend resistance and the yearly range highs- Look for a reaction at this level with the immediate long-bias at risk while below. Key support remains at the 2015 slope support which converges on the 52 & 200-week moving averages at 7170/90.

New to ForexTrading? Get started with this Free Beginners Guide

GBP/USD Weekly Price Chart

GBP/USD Price Chart - Weekly Timeframe

Notes: Simplicity is key! We’ve been tracking this ascending pitchfork formationextending off the 2016 / 2017 lows for over a year now in the British Pound. Our Bottom Line last month noted that, “a breach / close above the 2018 high-day close at 1.4134 would keep the long-bias in play targeting the 200-week moving average at ~1.4280s and the yearly high at 1.4346.” Price is within striking distance of the 1.4346 target after breaking above the median-line last week- look for a reaction there.

Bottom line: The immediate focus is on yearly highs here with a breach targeting the sliding parallel (red) around ~1.4450s and the upper median-line parallel (blue) at ~1.4730s. Interim support rests with the high-day close at 1.4157 broader bullish invalidation, unfortunately still down at 1.3675. Looking for re-entries on a larger pullback.

GBP/USD IG Client Positioning

GBP/USD Client Sentiment
  • A summary of IG Client Sentimentshows traders are net-short GBPUSD- the ratio stands at -2.01 (33.3% of traders are long) – bearishreading
  • Retail has remained net-short since Mar 21st; price has moved 2.7% higher since then
  • Long positions are 8.7% lower than yesterday and 28.8% lower from last week
  • Short positions are 5.0% lower than yesterday but 15.6% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger GBPUSD-bullish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

Why does the average trader lose? Avoid these Mistakes in your trading

EUR/NZD Weekly Price Chart

EUR/NZD Price Chart - Weekly Timeframe

Notes: EUR/NZD is trading just above slope support extending off the 2017 lows and is backed closely 1.6521/70- a region defined by the yearly range lows and the 61.8% extension of the decline off the 2017 highs. I’m looking for a reaction here (looking for a near-term low at one of these levels) - a break below this objective zone would suggest a more significant high is in place with subsequent support targets eyed at 1.6204/36.

Interim resistance stands at the yearly open at 1.6908 with bearish invalidation eyed at 1.7097 where the 2013 high-week close converges on basic slope resistance. A breach there would put the broader long-bias back in focus targeting 1.7258 and 1.7423.

Bottom line: There’s no play here just yet, but it’s make-or-break for EUR/NZD with the immediate focus on basic slope support. Note that weekly momentum has largely held above 50 since the early 2017 lows – a break below alongside break of the yearly opening-range in price would be a compelling signal for further weakness. That said, from a trading standpoint, I’ll be looking to fade weakness while above this threshold for now.

Previous Weekly Technical Perspectives

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

To receive Michael’s analysis directly, please sign-up to his email distribution list

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex or contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com

http://forms.aweber.com/form/63/1731135063.htm

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.