News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • #Euro Forecast: $EURUSD Falters at Yearly Open Resistance- #FOMC Levels - https://t.co/uWukTncIRg https://t.co/dn84mhHxQx
  • The gold monthly opening-range is set just below confluence resistance – breakout to offer guidance. Get your $XAUUSD market update from @MBForex here:https://t.co/19rCMiLlxG https://t.co/uFGK8q14KG
  • WTI Crude Oil Breakout (Update) https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/analyst_picks/todays_picks/james_stanley/2021/06/14/wti-crude-oil-breakout-update.html $oil #oott https://t.co/UGOItnUhgd
  • Indices Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: -0.03% France 40: -0.10% US 500: -0.23% FTSE 100: -0.23% Wall Street: -0.71% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/th5Y4GcBcR
  • I don't think this has any easier a path to developing into momentum ahead of the Fed decision as bullish efforts elsewhere, but the $DJI Dow is tentatively breaking lower and the Nasdaq-to-Dow ratio usually showing spec reach is rising: https://t.co/eN8xb6JOhW
  • WTI crude oil has room to rally further. Around the 77 mark lies substantial long-term resistance. Get your market update from @PaulRobinsonFX here:https://t.co/J0qpmLG6wF https://t.co/M2sThc69rK
  • In May of last year, Paul Tudor Jones made a big statement in support of #BTC - was trading under 10k at the time. https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/session_briefing/daily_fundamentals/2020/05/07/Bitcoin-Breakout-BTC-to-Fresh-Highs-JS-as-PTJ-Makes-Bull-Case-Bitcoin-to-USD.html 13 months later, he made some add'l remarks on #Bitcoin ahead of #FOMC - talked about it in this article https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/session_briefing/daily_fundamentals/2021/06/14/has-bitcoin-btc-btcusd-bottomed-ptj-makes-bull-case.html
  • ERCOT issues conservation alert, Texans asked to reduce electric use $CL_F #Oil #OOTT
  • NY Fed accepts $583.9 billion in reverse repo operations, highest total ever $USD
  • UK's Boris Johnson: - Delaying the lifting of lockdown by 4 weeks to July 19 - Extension of lockdown rules will enable vaccine rollout $GBP
AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Is the Correction Over?

AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Is the Correction Over?

Michael Boutros, Strategist

The Australian Dollar has rallied nearly 2% against the Japanese Yen since the March lows with the advance taking price into near-term confluence resistance. We’re looking for a reaction at this pivot with a breach above needed to keep the immediate long-bias in play. That said, this inflection point could also prove terminal for the correction off the lows- for now the focus is on resistance at 82.15.

AUD/JPY Daily Price Chart

AUD/JPY Price Chart - Daily Timeframe

Technical Outlook: In this week’s Technical Perspective, we highlighted the broader outlook for AUD/JPY with our near-term focus on resistance into the 82-handle. Price is testing this range today. The daily chart isn’t all that impressive here but does highlight some key levels IF price breaks higher at 82.52 & the 83-handle.

Key support remains with the 61.8% retracement / low-day close at 80.57/58- a break below this threshold targets, “79.45 and the median-line confluence around 78.50s. Note that AUDJPY made a new multi-year low while AUDUSD has not; a disparity that often manifests itself at larger turns in price- keep a close eye here.

New to Forex Trading? Get started with this Free Beginners Guide

AUD/JPY 120min Price Chart

AUD/JPY Price Chart - 120min Timeframe

Notes: A closer look at price action see’s AUD/JPY trading within the confines of a well-defined ascending channel formation with the upper parallel further highlighting resistance today around 82.15. Note that the momentum profile has exhibited a change in behavior with the oscillator finding support ahead of 40 after reaching its highest levels since mid-March (constructive).

Why does the average trader lose? Avoid these Mistakes in your trading

Bottom line: The immediate risk is higher but we’ll be looking for a near-term reaction here at confluence resistance. A breach above looks for a stretch into 82.52 & 83- both levels of interest for exhaustion. If we fail here again, look for interim support at 81.26 backed by the lower parallel, currently around ~80.95 (near-term bullish invalidation). Ultimately a break below 80.57 would be needed to mark resumption of the broader downtrend.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

AUD/JPY IG Client Positioning

AUD/JPY Client Sentiment
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long AUDJPY- the ratio stands at +1.44 (59.0% of traders are long) –weak bearishreading
  • Retail has remained net-long since Mar 15th; price has moved 2.4% lower since then
  • Long positions are 1.8% higher than yesterday and 12.8% lower from last week
  • Short positions are 13.0% lower than yesterday and 17.9% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests AUDJPY prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger AUDJPY-bearish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

See how shifts in AUD/JPY retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

---

Relevant Data Releases

AUD/JPY Economic Calendar

Other Setups in Play

- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

To receive Michael’s analysis directly, please sign-upto his email distribution list

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex or contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES