We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Trading Global Markets new #podcast features @DailyFX Anlayst @PeterHanksFX , who discusses what assets would benefit in the next #recession. Tune into this new podcast episode hosted by @MartinSEssex here: https://t.co/Twr44cZ1GB https://t.co/llKzvZGDpQ
  • The #Euro remains weak against a range of currencies and any move higher is struggling to gain traction as the single currency continues to be sold-off. Get your #EUR technical analysis from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/9B2m0kmd4d https://t.co/ZENxpC59mP
  • The Indian Rupee 2020 outlook is bearish as India faces stagflation risk amid rising onion and crude oil prices. $USDINR may rise in the medium-term as the RBI defers hiking rates. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/lRrlZjAQDw https://t.co/mFv1EOYMjG
  • The $GBP may be on the cusp resuming a 12-year downtrend against the US Dollar as signs of topping emerge at pivotal chart resistance. Get oyur market update from @IlyaSpivak here:https://t.co/9rM3OjWmBA https://t.co/sUWcSFruHw
  • The $NZD may be on average at risk to further losses against its major counterparts such as the US Dollar and Japanese Yen. Where to for NZD/USD and NZD/JPY from here? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/OFjePKYdCb https://t.co/eo1c6QAVd8
  • $AUDJPY technical positioning hints prices may be on cusp of turning lower after a late-2019 bounce, recoupling with a dovish RBA policy outlook. Get your market update from @IlyaSpivak here: https://t.co/z84Y0V0ZtH https://t.co/wcIGO1emDw
  • The Japanese Yen has faded into 2020 as market risk appetite has held up and hit demand for haven assets. $USDJPY now challenges a key medium-term downtrend, but hasn’t topped it yet.Get your market update from @DavidCottleFX here:https://t.co/4X6vgCgkB7 https://t.co/FfCkGhtHsm
  • The $USD may fall against the Swedish Krona and Norwegian Krone if commentary from officials at the Davos forum uplift market mood and pressure haven-linked currencies. Get your market update from @ZabelinDimitri here:https://t.co/SZAG0yMu3d https://t.co/cBZj5tC0Ny
  • The $NZD is inching toward support guiding gains in the fourth quarter of 2019. A break may set the stage for long-term bearish trend resumption. Get your market update from @IlyaSpivak here:https://t.co/bnlx4RJ8oV https://t.co/d60YziMYnO
  • $Gld prices are poised to mark the highest weekly-close in nearly seven-years, but the bulls aren’t in the clear yet. Here are the XAU/USD levels that matter next week. Get your $XAUUSD technical analysis from @MBForex here: https://t.co/yeTH6HwncQ https://t.co/6sIpxTSNaX
EUR/USD Uptrend Remains Viable If Price Can Hold Above these Levels

EUR/USD Uptrend Remains Viable If Price Can Hold Above these Levels

2018-03-28 16:31:00
Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist
Share:

Euro has seen some volatile sessions recently but on whole, price action continues to trade within the March opening range. The focus is on possible failure on this decline to offer clarity on whether this pullback is just a correction or a larger shift in the near-term trend.

EUR/USD Daily Price Chart

EUR/USD Price Chart - Daily Timeframe

Technical Outlook: Euro broke above the February trendline on Monday with the advance failing just above the monthly opening-range highs. Price is virtually unchanged on the week with the pullback now testing former slope resistance as support. Note that daily RSI has held between 40-60 since the February decline and fails to offer any clarity here.

That said, the longer-term outlook noted in this month’s EURUSD Technical Perspective remains unchanged and the, “broader focus remains on a break of the 1.2167-1.2598 range for guidance with the risk weighted to the topside while above confluence support at 1.2167.

New to Forex Trading? Get started with this Free Beginners Guide

EUR/USD 240min Price Chart

EUR/USD Price Chart - 240min Timefram

Notes: A few weeks ago we identified a break of near-term uptrend support in EURUSD and kept our focus lower, “targeting the weekly opening-range lows at 1.2291 backed by 1.2265 & 1.2240- both areas of interest for possible exhaustion / long-entries.” Price registered a low at 1.2240 before reversing higher with the pullback now testing the February slope line (resistance) as support. So is that it?

A closer look at near-term price action sees the pair trading within the confines of a modified ascending pitchfork formation extending off the monthly lows. A measured objective of the decline does leave room for a drop lower towards confluence support at 1.2318/22 but intraday losses should be capped by 1.2275(near-term bullish invalidation) IF Euro is still heading higher. I’d still be mindful of resistance at the yearly high-day close at 1.2409 with a breach there putting the 1.2470 & 1.2530 targets back into view.

Why does the average trader lose? Avoid these Mistakes in your trading

Bottom line: We’re looking for exhaustion on this pullback just lower with the decline to offer favorable long-entries. A break below this formation would risk a drop towards 1.2229/40- weakness beyond this level would ultimately look for a test of the monthly lows. From a trading standpoint, I’ll be looking for long-entries on a move towards near-term confluence support. Keep in mind we are heading into the close of the month / quarter this week with Eurozone CPI (Consumer Price Index) & US Core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure) on tap ahead of the extended holiday weekend- tread lightly.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

EUR/USD IG Client Positioning

EUR/USD Client Sentiment
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short EURUSD- the ratio stands at -1.81 (35.6% of traders are long) –bullishreading
  • Retail has remained net-short since Apr 18th; price has moved 16.2% higher since then
  • Long positions are 20.3% higher than yesterday and 20.2% lower from last week
  • Short positions are 9.8% lower than yesterday and 7.2% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Traders are less net-short than yesterday but more net-short from last week. The combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

See how shifts in EUR/USD retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

---

Relevant Data Releases

EUR/USD Economic Calendar

Other Setups in Play

- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

To receive Michael’s analysis directly, please sign-up to his email distribution list

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex or contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.