News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Gold and silver prices have come under significant pressure recently. However, this correction lower could prove short-lived as price analysis hints at a reversal higher. Get your $XAUUSD market update from @DanielGMoss here:https://t.co/K1qL0fsGwy https://t.co/tRfjlN6X22
  • The S&P 500, Dow Jones and crude oil prices have recently made critical advances to the upside. Is retail positioning supporting the case for further upside momentum?https://t.co/rfA2TsBctB https://t.co/SNoOEVLXvA
  • An improving economic backdrop is bolstering crude oil prices and in turn, the Canadian Dollar. Still, the risk-sensitive Australian Dollar continues to move higher. Get your market update from @FxWestwater here:https://t.co/NJ683bZKpe https://t.co/zt3bYddjZ6
  • Gold Price Forecast: Dovish FOMC Could Underpin Bullion Ahead of NFP - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/chf/2020/11/27/Gold-Price-Forecast-Dovish-FOMC-Could-Underpin-Bullion-Ahead-of-NFP.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Moss&utm_campaign=twr #Gold #XAUUSD $GOLD $GLD https://t.co/N9ChZOqSdy
  • Forex Update: As of 21:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇪🇺EUR: 0.42% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.35% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.30% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.20% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.16% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.33% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/4uyJxc09OH
  • Commodities Update: As of 21:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 1.48% Gold: -1.28% Silver: -2.80% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/pbfmvnsvuu
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 93.65%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 78.02%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/NL3bVphnYH
  • Indices Update: As of 21:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: FTSE 100: 0.64% Germany 30: 0.04% US 500: 0.00% Wall Street: 0.00% France 40: -0.02% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/uZ1HjcIJ4q
  • GBP/USD continues to fail around the 1.3400 level and is unlikely to make a confirmed break higher ahead of any trade talk confirmation. Get your $GBPUSD technical analysis from @nickcawley1 here:https://t.co/EWLFXK1q3q https://t.co/4XSSNxobMo
  • The Gold price sell-off has broken below key technical barriers and leaves the outlook for XAU/USD weighted to the downside heading into the close of the month. Get your $XAUUSD technical analysis from @MBForex here:https://t.co/3YLcAFlr5f https://t.co/1uFb9UkDvV
USD/CAD Rally Reverses at Critical Resistance Ahead of Canada CPI

USD/CAD Rally Reverses at Critical Resistance Ahead of Canada CPI

2018-03-21 16:30:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
Share:

The Canadian Dollar has finally caught a bid with USD/CAD reversing sharply off key confluence resistance this week. The pair remains vulnerable while below this threshold with the pullback in price now approaching near-term uptrend support-we’re looking for further evidence that a more significant exhaustion high may be in place.

USD/CAD Daily Price Chart

USD/CAD Price Chart - Daily Timeframe

Technical Outlook: USD/CAD turned from a key resistance confluence this week at 1.3103/32- a region where the 100% extension of the September advance and the 61.8% retracement of the 2017 decline converges on the upper median-line parallel of the ascending pitchfork formation. Note that daily RSI marked clear divergence into this high with a support trigger pending.

Near-term support rests with the 2017 January low at 1.2968 with a daily close below needed to suggest that a more significant high may be in place. Such a scenario would target the 2012 trendline which converges on the monthly opening range lows t 1.2803. A topside breach still has to contend with longer-term slope resistance just shy of 1.32.

New to Forex Trading? Get started with this Free Beginners Guide

USD/CAD 240min Price Chart

USD/CAD Price Chart - 240min Timeframe

Notes: A closer look at USD/CAD price action shows the pair trading within the confines of a near-term ascending channel formation extending off the February lows. The near-term focus remains lower while below 1.3132 with subsequent support targets eyed at 1.2918- look for a reaction there. A break keeps the short-bias in play targeting the monthly open at 1.2829 backed closely by 1.2789.

Why does the average trader lose? Avoid these Mistakes in your trading

Bottom line: USD/CAD turned from critical confluence resistance this week and while the immediate focus is lower, we’ll be looking for a break of this bullish formation to validate a larger reversal in price. From a trading standpoint, I’ll favor fading strength while below the upper parallel. Keep in mind that we still have the release of the FOMC interest rate decision later today with Canada CPI on tap on Friday.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

USD/CAD IG Client Sentiment

USD/CAD Client Sentiment
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short USDCAD- the ratio stands at -1.6 (39.1% of traders are long) – weak bullishreading
  • Traders have remained net-short since Mar 1st; price has moved 1.0% higher since then
  • Long positions are 29.0% higher than yesterday and 6.0% higher from last week
  • Short positions are13.8% lower than yesterday but 20.9% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USDCAD prices may continue to rise. However, retail is less net-short than yesterday but more net-short from last week and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed USDCAD trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

See how shifts in USD/CAD retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

---

Relevant Economic Data Releases

USD/CAD Economic Calendar

Other Setups in Play

- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

To receive Michael’s analysis directly, please sign-upto his email distribution list

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex or contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES