News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • The US Dollar seems to be back on the offensive against its major counterparts, pressuring EUR/USD and NZD/USD lower as USD/JPY consolidates. USD/CHF surges past key resistance. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/MrLGSp7FYa https://t.co/m42Rdv39Dx
  • Chinese estates' Evergrande loss assumes all shares sold -BBG #Evergrande
  • RT @FxWestwater: Australian Dollar Fights FOMC-Charged US Dollar After Upbeat PMI Data Link: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/asia_am_briefing/2021/09/22/Australian-Dollar-Fights-FOMC-Charged-US-Dollar-After-Upbeat-PMI-Data.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Westwater&utm_campaign=twr $AUDUSD https://t.co…
  • Heads Up:🇯🇵 Foreign Bond Investment (18/SEP) due at 23:50 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-09-22
  • Gold prices gain as potential systemic risks out of China's Evergrande Group roil broader markets. Meanwhile, iron ore is ticking higher after a big drop on Monday as China steps up steelmaking curbs. Get your market update from @FxWestwater here:https://t.co/l4kAWDrr7M https://t.co/B041Lqtg3S
  • #ASEAN based #USD index continues to extend the bounce off September lows post #FOMC This follows a test of the 100-day SMA as well as a rising trendline from June Eyes on the 38.2% Fib extension before potentially retesting the July/August highs https://t.co/uZ7OEJurPs
  • 🇦🇺 Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash (SEP) Actual: 57.3 Previous: 52 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-09-22
  • 🇦🇺 Markit Services PMI Flash (SEP) Actual: 44.9 Previous: 42.9 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-09-22
  • Heads Up:🇦🇺 Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash (SEP) due at 23:00 GMT (15min) Previous: 52 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-09-22
  • Heads Up:🇦🇺 Markit Services PMI Flash (SEP) due at 23:00 GMT (15min) Previous: 42.9 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-09-22
Weekly Technical Perspective on USD/CAD, USD/JPY and GBP/CAD

Weekly Technical Perspective on USD/CAD, USD/JPY and GBP/CAD

Michael Boutros, Strategist

In this series we scale-back and take a look at the broader technical picture to gain a bit more perspective on where we are in trend. Here are the key levels that matter on the weekly charts heading into the monthly close. Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of these setups and more.

USD/CAD Weekly Price Chart

USD/CAD Price Chart - Weekly Timeframe

Notes: USD/CAD tested key near-term resistance last week at 1.2723/26 where the December high-day reversal close converges on the 50-line of the descending pitchfork formation and former trendline support, now resistance, extending off the 2012 low. As noted in last week’s USD/CAD Scalp Report, the recent advance is at risk below this level and we’re on the lookout for an exhaustion high here. Note that daily RSI is also testing a momentum resistance trigger extending off the 2016 high.

Bottom Line: The immediate advance remains vulnerable while below this threshold with interim support eyed at the 1.26-handle. A break / close below the 2018 open at 1.2579 would be needed to validate the near-term reversal with such a scenario targeting 1.2388-1.2410. Critical support rests with the 2017 low-week reversal close at 1.2156. A breach higher from here would risk a rally up towards the 200-week moving average at ~1.2850s and the 50% retracement at 1.2927.

New to ForexTrading? Get started with this Free Beginners Guide

USD/CAD IG Client Positioning

USD/CAD IG Client Sentiment
  • A summary of IG Client Sentimentshows traders are net-long USD/CAD- the ratio stands at +1.07 (51.6% of traders are long) – bearishreading
  • Retail has remained net-longsince February 19th; price has moved 1.0% higher since then
  • Long positions are 6.0% lower than yesterday and 19.4% lower from last week
  • Short positions are 9.0% lower than yesterday and 11.1% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests USD/CAD prices may continue to fall. Traders are more net-long than yesterday but less net-long from last week. The combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed USD/CAD trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

Check out our New 2018 projectionsin our Free DailyFX Trading Forecasts

USD/JPY Weekly Price Chart

USD/JPY Price Chart - Weekly Timeframe

Notes: Earlier this month we noted that, “USD/JPY broke below confluence support at 107.84 this week with prices now probing the 61.8% retracement of the 2016 advance at 106.38this support zone could interrupt things a bit but look to fade strength sub-107.84 with a break lower targeting confluence support at 103.04/40 where the 100% extension and the 78.6% retracement converge on broader slope support (critical).”

Bottom line:The outlook remains unchanged from last week’s USD/JPY Scalp Update and heading into the monthly close the risk remains lower while below the 2012 trendline.

Why does the average trader lose? Avoid these Mistakes in your trading

GBP/CAD Weekly Price Chart

GBP/CAD Price Chart - Weekly Timeframe

Notes: GBP/CAD is testing a key resistance zone at 1.7728-1.7854 where the 2017 high and the 38.2% retracement of the 2015 decline converge on the median-line of the 2016 ascending pitchfork (also note the Brexit weekly reversal close). The immediate advance is at risk heading into this region with a weekly close needed to mark resumption. Such a scenario targets the 200-week moving average at ~1.8020s backed by confluence resistance at 1.8343. Key weekly support rests at 1.7305 with a breach below the 50-line / 1.71 needed to suggest ta larger correction is underway.

Bottom line: From a trading standpoint we’re on the lookout for signs of exhaustion in price this week while below 1.7854. Ultimately a larger set-back would offer more favorable long-entries targeting a breach of this 2017 range.

Previous Weekly Technical Perspectives

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michaelon Twitter @MBForex contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES