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AUD/NZD Price Tumbles to Five-Month Lows; Relief in Sight?

AUD/NZD Price Tumbles to Five-Month Lows; Relief in Sight?

Michael Boutros, Strategist

AUD/NZD has fallen nearly 3.6% from the January highs with the decline now attempting to break structural support. Price is approaching near-term targets which could offer a reprieve, but from a technical standpoint, the broader risk remains lower. . for now.

AUD/NZD Daily Price Chart

AUD/NZD Price Chart - Daily Timeframe

Technical Outlook: We highlighted a break below confluence support at around 1.08 in the Technical Perspective last week with initial targets eyed at “the 61.8% retracement at 1.0722 and the 100% extension at 1.0626.” The decline is now attempting to break below a sliding parallel of the dominant slope (red) with near-term support targets eyed at 1.0663, the 100% ext of the decline at 1.0626 and confluence support at 1.0588.

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AUD/NZD 240min Price Chart

AUD/NZD Price Chart - 240min Timeframe

Notes: A closer look at AUD/NZD price action sees the pair breaking below the weekly opening range low / weekly open on this move with initial support targets now in view. The focus remains lower for now while below the slope confluence at ~1.0740 with a breach above 1.0771 needed to shift the near-term outlook back to the long-side (near-term bearish invalidation).

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Bottom line: the immediate focus is lower towards channel support with a drop towards the aforementioned targets to offer entries for a possible near-term recovery. Keep in mind that a break of a proposed head & shoulders neckline earlier this month highlights the broader risk for a measured move into 1.0350/70- a region also defined by the 2017 low-day close and the 1.618% ext off the late-2017 decline. First thing’s first though, from a trading standpoint, look for a reaction on a move towards 1.0626 & 1.0588.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis mini-series

Relevant AUD/NZD Data Releases

AUD/NZD Economic Calendar


Other Setups in Play

- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.