Skip to Content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
More View More
USD/JPY Price Analysis: Rebound to Offer Opportunity

USD/JPY Price Analysis: Rebound to Offer Opportunity

Michael Boutros,
What's on this page

USD/JPY rebounded off downtrend structural support last week with the immediate focus now on the near-term advance. IF the broader trend is to remains intact, this rally should reach exhaustion relatively soon.

USD/JPY Daily Price Chart

USD/JPY Price Chart - Daily Timeframe

Technical Outlook: Last week we highlighted that USD/JPY was approaching key support at, “the 61.8% retracement of the 2016 advance at 106.38. Note that a sliding parallel of the dominant slope caught the lows today and may offer a reprieve near-term… From a trading standpoint, this support zone could interrupt things a bit but look to fade strength sub-107.84.” Price registered a low precisely at the May low at 105.55 before rebounding sharply into the close of the week.

New to Forex Trading? Get started with this Free Beginners Guide

USD/JPY 240min Price Chart

USD/JPY Price Chart - 240min timeframe

Notes: A closer look at USD/JPY price action sees the pair approaching initial resistance at 107.45/50 with our near-term bearish invalidation steady at the median—line / 107.84. Interim support is eyed at 106.80 with a break below 106.33 risking a drop towards the lower parallel / 105.55- a break there would suggest a much more significant breakdown is underway with such a scenario targeting 104.32 & 103.48.

Why does the average trader lose? Avoid these Mistakes in your trading

Bottom line: the immediate focus is on possible exhaustion on this rebound with the broader risk still lower sub-107.84. From a trading standpoint, I’m looking to fade a leg higher in price ultimately looking for a test of the lows / structural support (IF reached would be an area of interest for exhaustion / long-entries).

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis mini-series

USD/JPY IG Client Sentiment

USD/JPY IG Client Sentiment
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long USD/JPY- the ratio stands at +3.15 (75.9% of traders are long) – bearishreading
  • Traders remained net-long since Dec 29th; price has moved 5.2% lower since then
  • Long positions are 0.5% lower than yesterday and 9.2% higher from last week
  • Short positions are1.0% lower than yesterday and 4.8% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests USDJPY prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger USDJPY-bearish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

See how shifts in USD/JPY retail positioning are impacting trend- Click here to learn more about sentiment!

Relevant USD/JPY Data Releases

USD/JPY Economic Calendar


Other Setups in Play

- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

To receive Michael’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex or contact him at

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.