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Weekly Technical Perspective on DXY, USD/JPY, AUD/NZD and U.S. Bonds

Weekly Technical Perspective on DXY, USD/JPY, AUD/NZD and U.S. Bonds

2018-02-16 18:30:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist

In this series we scale-back and take a look at the broader technical picture to gain a bit more perspective on where we are in trend. Here are the key levels that matter on the weekly charts heading into the holiday weekend.

DXY Weekly Price Chart

DXY Price Chart - Weekly Timeframe

Notes: Last month we highlighted a key support zone in the Dollar Index, “at 88.26/71 where the 2010 swing high converges on the 50% retracement of the 2011 advance. Note that basic downslope support also converges on this region and further highlights the near-term risk to the broader downtrend.” Indeed price has continued to trade above this threshold for the past three weeks with the index once again testing this support on Friday.

Bottom Line: The focus remains on a below this level with the broader outlook still weighted to the downside while below the 2017 low-week close at 91.33. A break targets the 2011 trendline support which converges on the 2014 September swing high at ~86.75 (an area of interest for possible exhaustion / long-entries).

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USD/JPY Weekly Price Chart

USD/JPY Price Chart - Weekly Timeframe

Notes: USD/JPY broke below confluence support at 107.84 this week with prices now probing the 61.8% retracement of the 2016 advance at 106.38. Note that a sliding parallel of the dominant slope (red) caught the lows today and may offer a reprieve near-term.

Bottom line: From a trading standpoint, this support zone could interrupt things a bit but look to fade strength sub-107.84 with a break lower targeting confluence support at 103.04/40 where the 100% extension and the 78.6% retracement converge on broader slope support (critical).

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USD/JPY IG Client Positioning

USD/JPY IG Client Sentiment
  • A summary of IG Client Sentimentshows traders are net-long USD/JPY- the ratio stands at +2.58 (72.1% of traders are long) – bearishreading
  • Retail has remained net-longsince Dec 29th; price has moved 6.3% lower since then
  • Long positions are 4.1% higher than yesterday and 20.6% higher from last week
  • Short positions are 6.5% lower than yesterday and 8.9% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests USDJPY prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger USDJPY-bearish contrarian trading biasfrom a sentiment standpoint.

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AUD/NZD Weekly Price Chart

AUD/NZD Price Chart - Weekly Timeframe

Notes: Our focus last week was on a key support confluence in AUD/NZD at, “1.0791-1.0830 where the 50% retracement & 61.8% extension converge on the 52-week moving average and slope support.” A break below this level has us targeting, “the 61.8% retracement at 1.0722 and the 100% extension at 1.0626.

Bottom line: The decline is now probing below initial support and a weekly close below this level would keep price on course for a drop into the lower 50-line of the newly identified descending pitchfork formation. Interim resistance now with the 200-week moving average ~1.0770s with bearish invalidation now lowered to 1.0844.

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TNX Weekly Price Chart

TNX Price Chart - Weekly Timeframe

Notes: Yields on the 10-year have rallied to four-year highs with rates probing into a critical area of resistance this week around 2.90 where the 1994 channel resistance converges on the 50-line of the ascending pitchfork formation extending off the 2015 low.

Bottom line: The implications of a breach here are Big with a rally / close above the 2013 high / high-week close at 3.00/04 needed to validate the breakout of the multi-decade downtrend. That said, the immediate advance remains vulnerable while below this threshold with interim support eyed at the January uncovered gap at 2.66 backed by the 2016 high / slope support at 2.62(bullish invalidation). A breach higher targets the upper parallel which converges on the 100% extension at ~3.32.

Previous Weekly Technical Perspectives

- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.