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GBP/USD Breakout Underway - Topside Targets in View

GBP/USD Breakout Underway - Topside Targets in View

Michael Boutros, Strategist

GBP/USD Daily Chart

GBP/USD Price Chart - Daily Timeframe

Technical Outlook: The British Pound is up more than 5% since the start of the year (19-month highs) with the rally breaking through the median-line of a broad ascending pitchfork formation highlighted in this week’s Technical Perspective. The focus remains higher in Sterling while above last week’s highs at 1.3943 with a breach higher targeting subsequent resistance objectives at the 78.6% retracement of the 2016 Brexit decline at 1.4356 and the upper median-line parallel, currently around ~1.44.

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GBP/USD 240min Chart

GBP/USD Price Chart - 240min Timeframe

Notes: A closer look at near-term price action highlights a tight near-term ascending channel formation extending off the monthly low with the upper parallel being tested as resistance in early US trade. Could get some kickback off this mark but the immediate focus is higher while above channel support / 1.4028 with bullish invalidation now raised to 1.3943.

Bottom line: from a trading standpoint the outlook remains constructive near-term and a stretch into the subsequent topside targets could offer favorable opportunities to play the pullback. For now, look to fade weakness while within this near-term channel. Keep in mind we still have the release of both UK & US 4Q GDP (Gross Domestic Product) on Friday with the data likely to fuel added volatility in the Dollar & Sterling crosses. A good time for a near-term exhaustion high?z

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis mini-series

GBP/USD IG Client Sentiment

GBP/USD IG Client Sentiment
  • A summary of IG Client Sentimentshows traders are net-short GBPUSD- the ratio stands at -2.08 (32.5% of traders are long) – bullishreading
  • Retail has remained net-short since Dec 28th; price has moved 4.8% higher since then
  • Long positions are 1.2% lower than yesterday and 2.7% lower from last week
  • Short positions are 2.3% lower than yesterday and 2.1% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Retail is less net-short than yesterday but more net-short from last week. The combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed GBPUSD trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

See how shifts in GBP/USD retail positioning are impacting trend- Click here to learn more about sentiment!

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- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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