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AUD/USD Rally Approaching Initial Resistance Targets

AUD/USD Rally Approaching Initial Resistance Targets

2018-01-23 19:30:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
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AUD/USD Daily Chart

AUD/USD Price Chart - Daily Timeframe

Technical Outlook: The Australian Dollar has rallied nearly 3% since the start of the year with the prices now approaching near-term resistance targets at the 9/11 reversal-day close at 8026 and the 2017 high-day close at 8054. We highlighted this region early this month in my Weekly Technical Perspective and IF the market closes at these levels, prices will have posted an outside-day reversal off resistance – suggests bearish. Broad based USD losses are a concern, but from a technical standpoint the Aussie advance remains at vulnerable near-term while below these levels. Daily support rests at 7886/98.

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AUD/USD 240min Chart

AUD/USD Price Chart - 240min Timeframe

Notes: A closer look at near-term price action highlights a well-defined ascending channel formation extending off the December lows with Aussie trading just above channel support / weekly opening-range lows at 7956. A break / close below this threshold shifts the focus towards more significant support at 7886/98- an area of interest for near-term exhaustion / long-entries.

A breach above the high-day close at 8054 targets channel resistance around ~8100 backed by the 2017 high at 8125 and the 100% extension at 8153. Bottom line: the immediate advance is vulnerable but ultimately a pullback should offer more favorable long-entries. From a trading standpoint, I’m looking side-ways to lower in price while below 8054 with a break higher ultimately targeting subsequent resistance objectives.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis mini-series

AUD/USD IG Client Sentiment

AUD/USD IG Client Sentiment
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short AUDUSD- the ratio stands at -1.83 (35.4% of traders are long) – bullishreading
  • Retail has remained net-short since Dec 19th; price has moved 4.8% higher since then
  • Long positions are 5.9% higher than yesterday and 6.2% higher from last week
  • Short positions are 5.5% lower than yesterday and 7.5% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests AUDUSD prices may continue to rise. However, retail is less net-short than yesterday but more net-short from last week. The combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed AUDUSD trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

See how shifts in AUD/USD retail positioning are impacting trend- Click here to learn more about sentiment!

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- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

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Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex or contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com

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