We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The trio of central banks overseeing the commodity currencies have already cut their main rates to all-time lows. Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here: https://t.co/OSUXrN5P3j https://t.co/Cxt86jl28N
  • The Japanese Yen fell for a third consecutive week with price testing resistance into June open. Here are the levels that matter on the $USDJPY weekly technical chart. Get your #currencies market update from @MBForex here: https://t.co/1QPXP0g7Ew https://t.co/WUtXHoRoQX
  • $USDZAR: A rally from here could be an important tell as to whether the level seen as support previously (17.76) will turn into a point of resistance for sellers to lean against. Get your $USDZAR technical analysis from @PaulRobinsonFX here:https://t.co/TNsQ4JJu6E https://t.co/I4yCjs2ja0
  • The US dollar continued to sell-off this week and the greenback’s future will be decided by commentary from the White House and not the Federal Reserve over the coming days and weeks. Get your #currencies market update from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/lpHneO3s2h https://t.co/bZ5klohLNd
  • #Gold prices have continued to push higher as expectations have built for global Central Banks to remain very loose and passive with monetary policy for the foreseeable future. Get your $XAUUSD technical analysis from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/h5tF3kAZfd https://t.co/VAYy9FGHcQ
  • Major investment bank models have touted USD selling, given the outperformance in US equities relative to its counterparts over the past month. How is this likely to impact the month-end rebalancing? Find out from @JMcQueenFX here:https://t.co/MtNrHmXZpD https://t.co/YvoHlUsdVr
  • U.S. Market Analyst at https://t.co/JsVsSmefgR, Shain Vernier covers - ✔️ Safe haven assets in volatile markets ✔️ Central banks and governments ✔️ How will commodities trade in a recession Only on Trading Global Markets Decoded #podcast. Tune in here: https://t.co/1UmEzEbwiy https://t.co/X15k6b4ZyB
  • The month of May saw equities rise across the board. The #Dow Jones and #DAX 30 will look to hold above nearby support while the #Nasdaq 100 may look to attack all-time highs. Get your #equities market update from @PeterHanksFX here: https://t.co/dQxkG68R0I https://t.co/cgfcOs14qG
  • There is a dramatic departure between yield curve pricing for a recession and other measures of near-term growth; the Q2’20 Atlanta Fed GDPNow is extremely alarming.Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here: https://t.co/eMd3T8EwDO https://t.co/56oUP6we9U
  • The #DAX has now closed the gap from the beginning of March with the index breaking above 61.8% fib at 11592. Get your DAX market update from @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/wr67nkxc8z https://t.co/CkxPZn1v3t
A Weekly Technical Perspective on USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, Crude Oil

A Weekly Technical Perspective on USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, Crude Oil

2018-01-16 18:15:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
Share:

In this series we scale-back and take a look at the broader technical picture to gain a bit more perspective on where we are in trend. Here are the key levels that matter heading into the shortened holiday week.

USD/JPY Weekly Chart

USD/JPY Price Chart - Weekly Timeframe

Notes: Last month we highlighted that our, “immediate focus is on a break of the 112.14-114.33 range to offer guidance,” with a downside break last week shifting the focus lower in USD/JPY. Interim support is eyed at the 61.8% retracement of the September advance at 110.15 backed by the March swing low / 2017 low-week close at 107.84 - 108.13- a break there would risk substantial losses with such a scenario targeting the 61.8% retracement of the 2016 advance at 106.38.

Bottom line: Price could see some rebound this week after this recent decline but the focus remains weighted to the downside while below the 200-week moving average which converges on the 2018 open at 112.50/65 with bearish invalidation steady at 114.33. From a trading standpoint, I’ll favor fading strength ultimately targeting a break sub-110.15.

New to Trading? Get started with this Free Beginners Guide

USD/JPY IG Client Sentiment
  • A summary of IG Client Sentimentshows traders are net-long USD/JPY- the ratio stands at +1.96 (66.2% of traders are long) – bearishreading
  • Retail has remained net-long since Dec 29; price has moved 2.2% lower since then
  • Long positions are 12.2% higher than yesterday and 43.5% higher from last week
  • Short positions are 7.0% lower than yesterday and 22.7% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests USDJPY prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger USDJPY-bearish contrarian trading bias.

See how shifts in retail positioning are impacting trend- Click here to learn more about sentiment!

EUR/JPY Weekly Chart

EUR/JPY Price Chart - Weekly Timeframe

Notes: EUR/JPY is testing a key technical resistance confluence early in the year at 136.32 where the 161.8% Fibonacci extension converges on the basic parallel resistance. Note that the momentum profile continues to highlight ongoing bearish divergence and leaves the immediate advance at risk while below this threshold. Interim support rests at the monthly opening-range lows at the 133-handle with broader bullish invalidation set to 130.00/50- this region is defined by the 23.6% retracement of the late-2016 advance & the 200-week moving average and converges on basic slope support.

Bottom line: EUR/JPY is testing up-trend resistance with the immediate advance at risk sub-136.32. From a trading standpoint, I’ll favor fading weakness into structural support with a breach of the highs ultimately targeting a rally towards confluence resistance at 140.99.

Why does the average trader lose? Avoid these Mistakes in your trading

Crude Weekly Chart

Crude Oil Price Chart - Weekly Timeframe

Notes: Last week we highlighted a key near-term resistance barrier in crude prices at 64.78- “this level is defined by the 100% extension of the 2016 advance and converges on the median-line of the ascending pitchfork formation we’ve been tracking for months now.” While the breach above the 55-handle late-last year keeps the broader focus higher in oil, the immediate advance remains vulnerable while below this threshold. Interim support rests at 59.94 – 60.06 with broader bullish invalidation steady at 55.

Bottom line: We’re on the lookout for a pullback in prices to offer more favorable long-entries while above 55 with a breach higher targeting a critical Fibonacci resistance confluence at 70.41-71.21.

Check out our New Crude Oil 2018 projectionsin our Free DailyFX Trading Forecasts

Previous Weekly Technical Perspectives

- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michaelon Twitter @MBForex contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.