AUD/USD Price Rally Vulnerable- Pullback to Offer Opportunity
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- AUD/USD Carves monthly opening range below key near-term resistance
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AUD/USD Daily Chart
Technical Outlook: AUD/USD is carving out a well-defined monthly opening range just below a key near-term resistance range at 7887/98- this region is defined by the 61.8% retracement of the September decline & the October swing highs and converges on basic slope resistance extending off the 2017 high.
The immediate advance is at risk while below this threshold near-term and as noted in my Weekly Technical Perspective, “From a trading standpoint, I’m looking lower into the monthly open but ultimately a larger set-back would offer favorable long-entries within this confines of this broader uptrend.”
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AUD/USD 240min Chart
Notes: A closer look at price action sees Aussie turning just ahead of noted resistance with the pullback now testing interim support here at 7800/13. A break below this levels shifts the focus towards confluence slope support at ~7750s backed by the 2016 high-day close at 7735- both levels of interest for possible exhaustion / long-entries IF reached.
A topside breach of this formation would likely fuel accelerated gains for the pair with such a scenario targeting subsequent resistance objectives at 7991 and the 2017 high-day close at 8054. Bottom line: the immediate focus is on a break of the 7800-7898 range for guidance with a move lower to ultimately offer more favorable long-entries. Note that the economic docket is rather quiet until the tail end of the week with the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Retail Sales on tap.
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- A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short AUDUSD- the ratio stands at -2.05 (67.8% of traders are long) – bearish reading
- Retail has remained net-short since Dec 19; price has moved 2.3% higher since then
- The percentage of traders net-long is now its lowest since Sep 07
- Long positions are 8.0% lower than yesterday and 14.2% lower from last week
- Short positions are 5.1% higher than yesterday and 21.0% higher from last week
- We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests AUDUSD prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger AUDUSD-bullish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.
See how shifts in AUD/USD retail positioning are impacting trend- Click here to learn more about sentiment!
Relevant Data Releases
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- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX
Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex or contact him at firstname.lastname@example.org
DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.