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- Crude oil in multi-month consolidation pattern- break to determine medium-term outlook
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Crude Oil Weekly
Technical Outlook: Crude prices rallied though the yearly range highs & confluence resistance at the 55-handle in late-October, shifting the broader focus higher heading into the close of the year. The advance is struggling a bit here with a near-term consolidation break to offer guidance over the next few days. Note that we’ve broken above the upper median-line parallel of the broad ascending pitchfork formation dating back to 2015- a weekly close above this threshold would be needed if this rally has still has legs.
Crude Oil Daily Chart
The daily chart highlights a near-term median-line formation extending off the yearly lows with price continuing to hold just above the lower parallel. Keep in mind that the December opening range remains intact between 55.79-59.02 – look for the break.
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Crude Oil 240min Chart
Notes: A closer look at price action sees crude prices continuing to consolidate into the apex of a multi-month triangle formation. A topside breach targets initial objectives at 59.12 with more significant resistance eyed at 59.94-60.06- a close above this region would be needed fuel the next leg higher in oil with such a scenario targeting the 2015 highs at 62.56 backed by measured consolidation target at 63.23.
A downside break would put us neutral on crude with a break below the 55-handle needed to put the bears back in control and would risk a drop towards the yearly open at 53.80 and 52.52/79 (levels of interest for exhaustion / long-entries IF reached). Bottom line: the immediate focus is on a break of this multi-month consolidation range. While a topside breach is favored, we’ll respect a break sub-55 with the decline likely to offer more favorable long-entries lower down in price.
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- A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short Crude- the ratio stands at -1.07 (48.3% of traders are long) – weak bullishreading
- Long positions are 0.7% higher than yesterday and 1.1% higher from last week
- Short positions are 7.5% higher than yesterday and 9.4% higher from last week
- We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests US Crude prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger Oil - US Crude-bullish contrarian trading bias.
See how shifts in Crude Oil retail positioning are impacting trend- Click here to learn more about sentiment!
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- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX
Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex or contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com
