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A Weekly Technical Perspective on EUR/USD, USD/JPY, NZD/USD

A Weekly Technical Perspective on EUR/USD, USD/JPY, NZD/USD

2017-12-20 18:35:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
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In this series we scale-back and take a look at the broader technical picture to gain a bit more perspective on where we are in trend. Here are the key levels that matter on the Majors heading into the yearly close. Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of these setups and more.

EUR/USD Weekly Chart

EUR/USD Price Chart - Weekly Timeframe

Notes: Euro rebounded off the 2015 highs at 1.1714 last week (low registered at 1.1717) with prices tagging monthly open resistance today at 1.1903. The pair has continued to trade within the confines of this broad ascending pitchfork extending off the 2015 lows with the upper parallel catching the highs with precision back in September.

Bottom line: heading into the open of 2018 the trade remains constructive while above the 2016 highs at 1.1616 (not this level also converges on the 200-week moving average) with broader bullish invalidation down at 1.1423. A breach above the December open targets initial topside objectives at the 2012 swing low at 1.2042 with key resistance eyed at the upper parallel / 50% retracement at ~1.2167.

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USD/JPY Weekly Chart

USD/JPY Price Chart - Weekly Timeframe

Notes: Despite all the volatility this year, USDJPY has continued to trade within a well-defined range with key resistance steady at the 61.8% retracement of the yearly range at 114.33. Note that basic trendline resistance extending off the 2015 highs converges on this region heading into the close of the year. Near-term support rests at the confluence of the 52 & 200-week moving averages around 112.14/28.

Bottom line: the immediate focus is on a break of the 112.14-114.33 range to offer guidance with a breach higher (favored) targeting the 2018 open at 116.98 backed by 120.18-121.12. A downside break risks a larger setback towards 108.73 backed by the 61.8% retracement at 106.38- weakness below this level would suggest a drop towards the longer-term slope support, currently ~102.70s. Review a breakdown of the near-term levels in my latest USDJPY Scalp Report.

See how shifts in USD/JPY retail positioning are impacting trend- Click here to learn more about sentiment!

NZD/USD Weekly Chart

NZD/USD Price Chart - Weekly Timeframe

Notes: The New Zealand Dollar defended the 2017 opening-range lows at 6828 last month with the subsequent rally stretching into confluence resistance this week at 7038. Note that Kiwi broke below channel support extending off the 2015 lows back in October and IF this breakdown is legit, price advances should be capped by the 52-week moving average at the 71-handle.

Bottom line: heading into the close of the year it’s either a stretch into 7100 or a break below 6828 to tempt short entries with such a scenario targeting 6717 and confluence support at 6453/88. A close above 7100 would suggest that a more significant low may be in place and opens the door for an advance back towards 7261 & 7300. Broader bearish invalidation for the multi-year downtrend stands at 7516. Review a breakdown of the near-term levels in my latest NZDUSD Scalp Report.

Check out our NZD/USD quarterly projectionsin our Free DailyFX Trading Forecasts

Previous Weekly Technical Perspectives

- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michaelon Twitter @MBForex contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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