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USD/JPY Searches for a Top Ahead of FOMC

USD/JPY Searches for a Top Ahead of FOMC

Michael Boutros, Strategist

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USD/JPY Daily Chart

USD/JPY Price Chart - Daily Timeframe

Technical Outlook: USD/JPY has broadly held within the confines of this ascending pitchfork formation extending off the yearly lows. Note that a parallel of the same slope (red) extending off the October lows is now coming into view. Key resistance for the pair stands with the range highs / 61.8% retracement at 114.30/36 with support steady at 111.65 where the October low converges on the 100 & 200-day moving averages. Broader bullish invalidation rests at 111.03.

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USD/JPY 120min Chart

USD/JPY Price Chart - 120min Timeframe

Notes: A closer look at price action highlights a near-term ascending channel formation extending off the lows with the upper parallel converging on the 78.6% retracement at 113.90 into the close of US trade today. Interim support rests at 113.25 with our near-term bullish invalidation level now raised to 112.48.

A breach higher targets the 114.30/50 range- a critical threshold which if compromised would open up an advance targeting the 61.8% retracement of the 2015 decline at 115.52. Bottom line: heading into the FOMC policy meeting tomorrow, the near-term uptrend is at risk while below 114.50. Look for either signs of exhaustion there, or a break below 112.48 to shift the focus lower. A close above would keep the long-bias in play targeting subsequent resistance objectives.

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USD/JPY IG Client Sentiment
  • A summary of IG Client Sentimentshows traders are net-long USDJPY- the ratio stands at +1.02 (50.5% of traders are long) – weak bearishreading
  • Long positions are 9.9% higher than yesterday and 4.3% lower from last week
  • Short positions are 1.0% higher than yesterday and 12.9% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests USDJPY prices may continue to fall. However, retail is more net-long than yesterday but less net-long from last week and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed USDJPY trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

See how shifts in USD/JPY retail positioning are impacting trend- Click here to learn more about sentiment!

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Relevant Data Releases

USD/JPY Economic Calendar

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- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex or contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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