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  • Key break here in the 10-year #Treasury yield as it rises to the highest since late June Took out 1.4230 resistance, and the 100-day SMA Eyes now on the 38.2% Fib extension at 1.4775 Also potential falling resistance from March https://t.co/4cI6l210ui
  • The move in rates after this week’s FOMC has continued and the 10 year yield has pushed up to a fresh two-month-high. Get your market update from @JStanleyFX here:https://t.co/CRWhuZ3sxD https://t.co/svHHqN2Zz8
  • S&P 500 contending with its proverbial ‘line in the sand’ as bulls and bears battle for directional control. How we close/trade around the 50-day moving average could serve as a noteworthy bellwether for risk trends headed into next week. I remain cautious below ~4,480. $SPX $ES https://t.co/qogkjs1Sx2
  • USD/JPY trades to a fresh monthly (110.57) amid the pickup in longer-dated US Treasury yields, and the exchange rate may stage a larger advance over the coming days. Get your market update from @DavidJSong here:https://t.co/dlNXOrJnM9 https://t.co/LCQd26W1zF
  • US yields continue to climb, with the 10-year Treasury yield trading above 1.45% $ZN $ZB https://t.co/N4EDfwD3nZ
  • $USDJPY bull thesis appears quite constructive. Technicals show topside breakout above trend resistance following a period of consolidation. Bond yields providing the fundamental catalyst. Eyes on Aug/YTD highs. A broad-based deterioration in market sentiment poses downside risk. https://t.co/AazskXGjHq
  • WTI posting another session of strong gains, currently flirting with the 74 handle $CL #Oil #OOTT https://t.co/oYnm2OYRky
  • The New Zealand Dollar’s bullish breakout attempt in early-September was rebuffed. Price action at the end of the month is telling a different story. Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here:https://t.co/AquMSrssne https://t.co/DtFuFfrS7Q
  • So much for that Evergrande recovery. Shares of the troubled Chinese property developer are down approximately -12% today following yesterday's impressive rally (biggest in a year) https://t.co/Nome25d9Bt
  • Retail trading platform Robinhood announces hire of new Chief Compliance Officer amid regulatory scrutiny
AUD/USD Battles to Surpass 8000- Watch for a Break of this Range

AUD/USD Battles to Surpass 8000- Watch for a Break of this Range

Michael Boutros, Strategist

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AUD/USD Daily Chart

AUD/USD Price Chart- Daily Timeframe

Technical Outlook: We last visited AUDUSD in mid-August when the pair was testing the lower parallel of this ascending median-line formation. Targets at the “50% retracement of the August decline at 7937 backed closely by the 61.8% retracement at 7967” have already been taken out with the rally failing just pips ahead of confluence support at 8032. The focus heading into September trade is now on a break of the monthly opening-range which has taken shape just above slope support.

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AUD/USD 240min

AUD/USD Price Chart- 240min Timeframe

Notes:A closer look at price action further highlights near-term confluence support into the monthly opening-range low at 7921 with our bullish invalidation level now set to 7892. Soft resistance remains with the August open at the 80-handle with a breach above 8032 targeting 8088 backed by the longer-term 100% extension at 8153.

Bottom line: look for a break of this near-term range with our broader focus higher while within this formation. A break below the 61.8% retracement would invalidate the long-bias with such a scenario risking a drop into support objectives at 7835 & 7778/84.

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AUD/USD IG Client Sentiment
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-shortAUDUSD- the ratio stands at -1.94 (36.0% of traders are long) –bullish reading
  • Retailhas remained net-short since June 4th; price has moved 6.6% higher since then
  • Long positions are 8.0% higher than yesterday but1.2% lower from last week
  • Short positions are 1.9% higher than yesterday and7.0% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests AUDUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is less net-short than yesterday but more net-short from last week. The combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed AUDUSD trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

See how shifts in AUD/USD retail positioning are impacting trend- Click here to learn more about sentiment!

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Relevant Data Releases

AUD/USD Battles to Surpass 8000- Watch for a Break of this Range

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Other Setups in Play

- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex or contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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