News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Fed's Kashkari: - The true unemployment rate is around 9.5% - It would be great to get back to full employment by 2023 - Full employment to me is when employment and wage growth are strong enough to get to 2% inflation #Fed $USD
  • Indices Update: As of 17:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: FTSE 100: 0.39% France 40: 0.30% Germany 30: 0.28% Wall Street: 0.09% US 500: -0.23% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/cTEQGqNWFV
  • $USDCHF is continuing to strengthen today, now trading above the 0.9300 level. The pair is currently at its highest point since last July after three weeks of continued strength, rising from 0.8900 in mid February to its current levels. $USD $CHF https://t.co/WCVGdCvLFq
  • Hey traders! Wrap up your week with a quick update on #NFP and more from @DailyFX Chief Strategist @JohnKicklighter 👇 https://t.co/zrOo2scbiE
  • US, EU said to reach deal to suspend Boeing-Airbus tariffs. $USD $EUR
  • #Silver hit a fresh one month low today. The precious metal is currently trading right around the 25.00 level, its lowest point since late January. $XAG $SLV https://t.co/DhVcp7ULYO
  • 🇷🇺 Inflation Rate YoY (FEB) Actual: 5.7% Expected: 5.5% Previous: 5.2% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-03-05
  • Forex Update: As of 15:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇨🇦CAD: 0.06% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.10% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.11% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.41% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.41% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.44% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/N9GeMoaLjM
  • Indices Update: As of 15:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: FTSE 100: 0.24% Wall Street: 0.07% US 500: -0.34% France 40: -0.55% Germany 30: -0.67% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/XcycPxwwyi
  • Heads Up:🇷🇺 Inflation Rate YoY (FEB) due at 16:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 5.5% Previous: 5.2% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-03-05
USDJPY Moment of Truth: Rally Attempts Breach of Key Slope Resistance

USDJPY Moment of Truth: Rally Attempts Breach of Key Slope Resistance

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Talking Points

USD/JPY Daily

USD/JPY Daily Chart

Technical Outlook:USDJPY gaped into the Sunday open with the subsequent rally attempting to breach above Trendline resistance extending off the yearly highs. Note that each time we’ve approached this slope price has either accelerated through OR encountered strong resistance. This low-tolerance threshold remains the focus heading into the start of the week (look for a daily close above) with the near-term focus higher while above the highlighted region just around the 200-DMA.

USD/JPY 240min

USD/JPY 120min Chart

Notes: A closer look at price action highlights a newly identified slope off the lows with the median-line converging on the monthly open at 110.76 (near-term support). A breach of the highs targets the 38.2% retracement / monthly opening range high at 115.59/71 backed by more significant resistance at 112.20/25.

A break below the 110.50 invalidates the long-bias with such a scenario targeting 110.11 backed by the lower parallel at 106.60/80. From a trading standpoint, the immediate risk is for a pullback off these levels but I’ll favor fading weakness while above the monthly open. Look for a shift in sentiment to accompany the move as broader metrics still remain rather bearish.

USDJPY Moment of Truth: Rally Attempts Breach of Key Slope Resistance
  • A summary of IG Client Sentimentshows traders are net-long USD/JPY- the ratio stands at +2.03 (67.0% of traders are long)- bearish reading
  • Traders have been net-long since May 17; price has moved 1.8% lower since then
  • Long positions are 11.6% higher than yesterday and 5.8% higher from last week
  • Short positions are 5.9% higher than yesterday but 13.2% lower from last week
  • Although broader sentiment continues point lower, the recent rally in price is attempting to breach multi-month slope resistance, and if broken, would shift the technical focus to the long-side of the pair. That said, look for a continued pullback in sentiment off the monthly extremes to further validate the breakout play.

See how shifts in USD/JPY retail positioning are effecting market trends- Click here to learn more about IG Client Sentiment indicators!

---

Relevant Data Releases

USDJPY Moment of Truth: Rally Attempts Breach of Key Slope Resistance

Other Setups in Play:

- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES