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AUD/NZD Trapped- Rebound at Risk Below 1.09

AUD/NZD Trapped- Rebound at Risk Below 1.09

Michael Boutros,

Talking Points

  • AUD/NZD carves weekly opening range below resistance- longs at risk sub-1.0915
  • Updated targets & invalidation levels
  • Looking for more trade ideas? Review DailyFX’s 2017 Trading Guides. Join Michael for Live Weekly Trading Webinars on Mondays at 13:30GMT (8:30ET)


AUD/NZD Daily Chart

Technical Outlook:AUDNZD is in consolidation near the yearly highs after rallying more than 6% off the January lows. The reversal ahead of the January 2016 highs at 1.0970 late-last month remains in focus with the near-term risk weighted to the downside while below confluence resistance around 1.0910/20.

Interim support rests with the 50-line backed closely by 1.0754/71– a region defined by the July / October highs and the 38.2% retracement of the yearly advance. A break below this zone would shift the broader focus lower with such a scenario targeting 1.0662/72 & critical support at 1.0590-1.06(broader bullish invalidation & an area of interest for exhaustion / long-entries). Keep in mind we’re treating this pullback as a correction with the longer-term outlook weighted to the topside while within this broader ascending pitchfork formation.

AUDNZD 240min

AUD/NZD 120min Chart

Notes:A closer look at price action highlights near-term resistance at the upper median-line parallel of this newly identified descending pitchfork formation extending off the highs. This level feature converges on the 61.8% retracement of the recent decline and the longer-term 61.8 of the 2016 trading range at 1.0912/16. Note that the weekly opening range high comes in just below at 1.0904 – look for a reaction here with a breach above basic trendline resistance off the early highs needed to mark resumption of the broader up-trend.

A tighter range here on AUDNZD has me looking for 1/3 of the daily average true range (ATR) which yields profit targets of 20-23pips per scalp. The economic docket is rather light this week from both respective counterparts, keeping the focus on a break of this initial weekly / monthly opening range.


Relevant Data Releases

Other Setups in Play:

- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex contact him at or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.