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AUD/USD: RBA Game Plan & Levels to Know

AUD/USD: RBA Game Plan & Levels to Know

Michael Boutros,

Talking Points

  • AUD/USD opening range in focus ahead of RBA- risk lower sub-7650
  • Updated targets & invalidation levels
  • Looking for more trade ideas? Review DailyFX’s 2017 Trading Guides. Join Michael for Live Weekly Trading Webinars on Mondays at 13:30GMT (8:30ET)

AUDUSD 120min

AUD/USD 120min Chart

Technical Outlook:Aussie has been trading within the confines of a descending channel formation extending off the March highs and heading into tonight’s Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate decision the broader focus remains lower while within this formation. From a trading standpoint, ultimately I’m looking for a new low to fade early in the week.

Initial resistance stands at 7622 with bearish invalidation at 7649. A breach above this level would shift the focus higher for the Aussie targeting 7687. Interim support rests with the 61.8% retracement at 7590 with a break lower targeting confluence support at 7540/47(area of interest for exhaustion / long-entries)- a break below this threshold would risk substantial losses for the pair with such a scenario eyeing subsequent support targets at 7490 & 7450.

  • A summary of the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows traders are net-short AUDUSD- the ratio stands at -1.55 (39.2% of traders are long)- weak bullish reading
  • Traders have been net-short since January 9th when Aussie was trading near 7189- Since then, the pair has rallied 6.6% higher
  • Long positions are 17.9% higher than yesterday and 31.6% higher from last week
  • Short positions are 4.5% higher than yesterday but 3.9% lower from last week
  • While SSI continues to point higher, it’s worth noting that the recent build in long positioning continues to highlight the risk for further losses in the near-term – look for post-RBA price reaction / a break of the weekly opening range to offer further guidance.


Relevant Data Releases

Other Setups in Play:

- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.