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EUR/USD: Down But Not Yet Out

EUR/USD: Down But Not Yet Out

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Talking Points

  • EURUSD Reversal off key resistance to offer favorable long-entries
  • Updated targets & invalidation levels
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EURUSD Daily Chart

Technical Outlook: EURUSD reversed sharply off key resistance early this week at 1.0872-1.0908 – this region is defined by the November high-day close, the June lows, the 2016 open and the 200-day moving average. Note the accompanying break of a support-trigger in daily RSI further highlight’s the risk for continued weakness near-term. Key support targets are eyed at 1.0690-1.07 backed by 1.0623/50 (bullish invalidation) – both zones of interest for near-term exhaustion / long-entries. Interim resistance is eyed at 1.0817/20 with a breach / close above 1.09 targeting subsequent topside objectives at 1.0930/36 & 1.0984.

EURUSD 240min

EURUSD 240min Chart

Notes: A closer look at price action highlights a break of the weekly open / opening range lows yesterday, shifting the near-term focus lower. The pair is now testing interim support at 1.0749 with a break lower targeting the aforementioned levels of interest. A quarter of the daily average true range (ATR) yields profit targets of just 19-23 pips per scalp.

Added caution is warranted heading into the close of the week / month / quarter with the release of Eurozone & German CPI numbers also likely to fuel increased volatility in the EUR crosses. From a trading standpoint, I’ll be looking for a move lower into the lower parallels to offer favorable long-entries targeting a breach of the 1.0872-1.0908key resistance threshold.

EUR/USD: Down But Not Yet Out
  • A summary of the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows traders are short EURUSD- the ratio stands at -1.93 (34% of traders are long)- bullish reading
  • Retail traders have remained net-short since Mar 15 when the pair was trading near 1.06116- price has moved 1.9% higher since then.
  • Long positions are 23.7% higher than yesterday and 34.0% above levels seen last week
  • Short positions are 2.9% lower than yesterday and 8.9% below levels seen last week
  • While the current SSI profile continues to point higher, it’s worth noting that the recent build in long positions suggest traders are attempting to fade this near-term decline and leaves the immediate risk lower. Ultimately, we’ll be looking for a new low to get long.


Relevant Data Releases

EUR/USD: Down But Not Yet Out

Other Setups in Play:

- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.