News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Dealing with the fear of missing out – or FOMO – is a highly valuable skill for traders. Not only can FOMO have a negative emotional impact, it can cloud judgment and overshadow logic. Learn how you can control FOMO in your trading here: https://t.co/lgDf5cVYOn https://t.co/RJLpBgS43V
  • Currency exchange rates are impacted by several factors. Are different world leaders a contributing factor? Find out here: https://t.co/4jsORznRTE https://t.co/6GrWzkOouM
  • Risk management is one of the most important aspects of successful trading, but is often overlooked. What are some basic principles or risk management? Find out from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/IsnpfJhp91 https://t.co/lIUxpfSem3
  • Looking for a new way to trade reversals? One of the most used reversal candle patterns is known as the Harami. Like most candlestick formation patterns, the Harami tells a story about sentiment in the market. Get better with trading reversals here: https://t.co/rfwUWJfbz9 https://t.co/8kBulRFd6l
  • MACD who? The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a technical indicator which simply measures the relationship of exponential moving averages (EMA). Find out how you can incorporate MACD into your trading strategy here: https://t.co/ZNs4Qi8ieG https://t.co/6u52PuzIaY
  • Forex quotes reflect the price of different currencies at any point in time. Since a trader’s profit or loss is determined by movements in price, it is essential to develop a sound understanding of how to read currency pairs. Learn how to read quotes here: https://t.co/CNtqrKWDBY https://t.co/rHDy0XNZjQ
  • (Weekly Outlook) Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Divergence With Wall Street Risks Continuing #AUD $AUDUSD #Fed #Stocks https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/aud/2021/06/12/Australian-Dollar-Outlook-AUDUSD-Divergence-With-Wall-Street-Risks-Continuing.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/ryxG0fHmzd
  • The US Dollar steadied against most ASEAN currencies this past week. Key support levels remain in play looking at USD/SGD, USD/THB and USD/PHP. USD/IDR may rise with a new trendline. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/bpr5ZlKIcE https://t.co/0pskmzXZHi
  • EUR/USD has been looking toppy since late May as bearish technical signals played out. But, rising Euro short bets from retail traders hint that the currency may hold its footing. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/fAZijmQVqh https://t.co/pXICvFE007
  • The Japanese Yen may rise as retail investors increase their long exposure in pairs like USD/JPY and EUR/JPY. Will these pairs turn lower? What are key levels to watch for? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/PqNahX71oF https://t.co/xZzmwrVQcr
AUD/USD Revisits Multi-Month Resistance

AUD/USD Revisits Multi-Month Resistance

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Talking Points

  • AUDUSD rally testing multi-month resistance range- Immediate long-bias at risk below
  • Updated targets & invalidation levels
  • Looking for more trade ideas? Review DailyFX’s 2017 Trading Guides. Join Michael for Live Weekly Trading Webinars on Mondays at 13:30GMT (8:30ET)

AUDUSD Daily

AUD/USD Daily Chart

Technical Outlook:AUDUSD is probing a key resistance range we’ve been tracking for the past few months at 7735/56- this region is defined by basic trendline resistance, the 88.6% retracement of the April decline & the 2016 high-day close and has continued to cap rallies in Aussie since August. The focus is on this key range heading into the close of the month with a close above needed to mark a more significant breakout opportunity in the pair. That said, the immediate advance remains at risk while below this threshold with interim support seen at the monthly open 7656.

AUDUSD 120min

AUD/USD 120min Chart

Notes:A look at the intraday chart highlights a near-term slope originating off the monthly lows with the weekly opening range now taking shape just below the 7735/56 resistance zone- look for the break with a move sub-7651/56 needed to mark a more meaningful correction in the pair. Such a scenario targets subsequent objectives at 7620 & 7591. Broader bullish invalidation rests at 7542/47 (3/3 swing low / 200-day moving average).

A breach topside breach still has to contend with the November high at 7778- but beyond that, it should be smooth sailing to 7835. From a trading standpoint, I’ll be looking for exhaustion around these levels with a deeper pullback to offer more favorable long opportunities into structural support – the first of which would be the monthly open. Keep in mind seasonal tendencies favor USD weakness (i.e. AUDUSD strength) heading into the start of April trade.

A quarter of the daily average true range (ATR) yields profit targets of 17-22pips per scalp. Most of the event risk this week will come from the USD with the release of the February Durable Goods Orders on Friday highlighting the economic docket.

AUD/USD SSI
  • A summary of the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows traders are net-short AUDUSD- the ratio stands at -2.28 (30.5% of traders are long)- bullish reading
  • Traders have been net-short since January 9th when Aussie was trading near 7182- Since then, the pair has rallied 7.7%
  • Long positions are 4.5% higher than yesterday and 9.9% lower from last week
  • Short positions are 5.2% higher than yesterday and 19.0% higher from last week
  • While SSI continues to broadly point higher, it’s worth noting that the recent build in open interest & recovery in SSI off the monthly lows suggest the immediate bullish bias is at risk- especially as prices press key resistance.

---

Relevant Data Releases

AUD/USD Revisits Multi-Month Resistance

Other Setups in Play:

- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES