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AUD/USD Eyeing Topside Targets Ahead of Aussie Jobs Report

AUD/USD Eyeing Topside Targets Ahead of Aussie Jobs Report

2017-02-15 17:30:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist

Talking Points


AUDUSD Daily Chart

AUD/USD 120min

AUDUSD 120min Chart

Technical Outlook: Aussie has been holding a well-defined range between just above the January highs at 7609 into 7699. Note that the pair has continued to respect this slope extending off the December/January lows and heading into tonight’s Australia employment report, I’ll favor the long-side while above the weekly lows with broader bullish invalidation at 7570- a region defined by the 23.6 % retracement, the lower parallel & would necessitate a break back below the monthly open.

A breach higher still faces a series of resistance targets at 7735, 7756 & the November highs a 7778. Added caution is warranted heading into tonight’s Australia employment report with the release likely to fuel volatile in the Aussie crosses. Keep in mind markets are anticipating a gain of 10K jobs for the month of January with unemployment & labor force participation widely expected to hold at 5.8% & 64.7% respectively. That said, the risk is to the downside in price on a miss in the data.

From a trading standpoint, I would be looking to fade weakness while above the slope support we tagged last night with a stretch into the topside targets on the data release likely to offer near-term opportunities on the short-side.

AUD/USD Eyeing Topside Targets Ahead of Aussie Jobs Report
  • A summary of the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows traders are short AUDUSD- the ratio stands at -1.65 (38% of traders are long)- bullish reading
  • Long positions are 0.1% higher than yesterday but 9.3% below levels seen last week
  • Short positions are 9.9% lower than yesterday but 7.7% above levels seen last week
  • Open interest is 6.4% lower than yesterday and 1.3% below its monthly average
  • While the current SSI profile continues to point higher, it’s worth noting that the continued narrowing in the ratio from recent extremes does leave the long-bias vulnerable near-term while within this price range.

Relevant Data Releases

AUD/USD Eyeing Topside Targets Ahead of Aussie Jobs Report

Looking for trade ideas? Review DailyFX’s 2017 1Q Projections

Other Setups in Play:

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michaelon Twitter @MBForex contact him at or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.