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NZD/USD Coils as Traders Await RBNZ – Levels to Know

NZD/USD Coils as Traders Await RBNZ – Levels to Know

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Talking Points

NZD/USD 120min

NZD/USD 120min Chart

Technical Outlook: Kiwi posted an outside day reversal off median-line resistance yesterday with the decline breaking below the lower parallel of the ascending pitchfork extending off the December / January lows. On face value, the pair has simply set a well-defined weekly opening range and heading into the RBNZ interest rate decision, the risk remains lower while below confluence resistance at 7352 with a break below 7254 needed to validate a near-term reversal. Subsequent support targets are eyed at 7200, 7179& the lower parallel (~7150s).

A breach above the upper parallel invalidates the reversal play with such a scenario targeting confluence resistance at the 74-handle (also an area of interest for near-term exhaustion). Keep in mind the central bank is widely expected to maintain its current policy stance and the focus will be on the accompanying commentary as a pick-up in inflation is counter-balanced by sluggish wage / job growth.

NZD/USD Coils as Traders Await RBNZ – Levels to Know
  • A summary of the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows traders are short NZDUSD- the ratio stands at -1.86 (35% of traders are long)- weak bullishreading
  • Long positions are 0.6% lower than yesterday and 5.6% below levels seen last week
  • Short positions are 5.8% higher than yesterday and 3.4% above levels seen last week
  • Open interest is 3.5% higher than yesterday and 9.41% above its monthly average
  • While the current SSI profile continues to point higher, it’s worth noting that the ratio has continued to narrow from a 2017 extreme of -2.51 and leaves the long-side vulnerable near-term. Look for a build in long positioning in the coming days for further evidence that the pair may be poised for a more meaningful pullback

Relevant Data Releases

NZD/USD Coils as Traders Await RBNZ – Levels to Know

Looking for trade ideas? Review DailyFX’s 2017 1Q Projections

Other Setups in Play:

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michaelon Twitter @MBForex contact him at or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.