AUD/JPY to Threaten Key Support Ahead of RBA
- AUD/JPYapproaching confluence support ahead of RBA
- Updated targets & invalidation levels
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Technical Outlook: AUDJPY is approaching support at the lower median-line parallel extending off the July low with price action continuing to respect this near-term descending slope off the recent highs. We discussed this setup at length in today’s webinar and to start the week the focus is on this support zone at 85.55 where the 61.8% extension of the late-January decline and the February open converge on the lower parallels.
Look for interim resistance at 86.02 backed by 86.30 with bearish invalidation set to 85.52. From a trading standpoint, I’ll favor selling rallies while within this formation with a break/close below confluence support at the 85-handle needed to validate a more significant reversal in the pair- such a scenario would target subsequent support objectives at 84.83 and the 78.6% retracement / lower median-line parallel at 84.46.
- A summary of the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows traders are short AUDJPY- the ratio stands at -1.05 (49% of traders are long)- neutral reading
- Long positions are 4.7% higher than yesterday and 3.5% above levels seen last week
- Short positions are 0.9% lower than yesterday but 4.6% above levels seen last week
- Open interest is 1.8% higher than yesterday but 6.7% below its monthly average
- While the current SSI profile continues to offer a mixed outlook for the pair, it’s worth noting that the recent increase in long-positioning on building open interest leaves the long-side vulnerable near-term.
Relevant Data Releases
Looking for trade ideas? Review DailyFX’s 2017 1Q Projections
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---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX
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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.