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Gold Prices Back Below 1200- Here’s the Game Plan

Gold Prices Back Below 1200- Here’s the Game Plan

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Talking Points

  • Gold reverses off key structural resistance- Initial support targets in view
  • Updated targets & invalidation levels
  • Looking for more trade ideas? Review DailyFX’s 2017 Trading Guides. Join Michael for Live Weekly Trading Webinars on Mondays at 13:30GMT (8:30ET)

Gold Weekly

Gold Weekly Chart

Technical Outlook: In our last gold update, we highlighted the threat of a near-term pullback in gold while below 1219 – a region, “defined by the 38.2% retracement of the July decline and converges on the 50-line of the ascending median-line formation off the 2013 & 2015 lows. The immediate long-bias is at risk while below this threshold.” It’s only Thursday, but if prices were to close the week at or below current levels, gold will have marked an outside weekly-reversal off resistance- bearish near-term.

Gold Daily

Gold Daily Chart

Daily momentum divergence into this week’s highs further highlighted the risk of a correction in price with a break below near-term support yesterday 1200 keeping the immediate focus lower while below. Initial support is eyed at 1182 backed closely by the median-line extending off the March 2016 high (red) currently ~1177- both areas of interest for near-term exhaustion / long-entries.

Gold 120min

Gold 120min Chart

Notes: Bottom line: The risk remains lower while within this formation within initial resistance eyed at 1196 & 1207- (bearish invalidation). A breach above this key region would be needed to shift the focus back towards topside targets at 1219, 1240/41 & the 50% retracement at 1249. Keep in mind we have U.S. 4Q GDP on tap tomorrow with the release likely to fuel added volatility in dollar denominated assets. From a trading standpoint, I would be looking to either fade weakness on a move into structural support near 1177 OR fade a near-term rally towards 1207 for a move back into the lower parallels.

Gold SSI
  • A summary of the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows traders are net long gold- the ratio stands at +2.05 (67% of traders are long)- bearish reading
  • Long positions are 5.5% higher than yesterday but 2.1% below levels seen last week
  • Short positions are 6.7% lower than yesterday and 11.3% below levels seen last week
  • Open interest is 1.2% higher than yesterday and 9.1% below its monthly average.
  • Waning market participation suggests shorts were getting cleared out as the rally approached key technical resistance. The near-term risk is weighted to the downside as long retail interest begins to build.

Looking for trade ideas? Review DailyFX’s 2017 1Q Projections

Other Setups in Play:

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.