News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • Heads Up:🇬🇧 Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI Flash (SEP) due at 08:30 GMT (15min) Expected: 55 Previous: 55.0
  • Heads Up:🇬🇧 Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI Flash (SEP) due at 08:30 GMT (15min) Expected: 59 Previous: 60.3
  • Heads Up:🇬🇧 Markit/CIPS Composite PMI Flash (SEP) due at 08:30 GMT (15min) Expected: 54.5 Previous: 54.8
  • Based on the Committee’s current assessment of the outlook and balance of risks, the policy rate will most likely be raised further in December $nok
  • Norges Bank - The policy rate forecast implies gradual rate rise in coming years - Policy rate path is a little higher than in the June 2021 report
  • 🇵🇭 Interest Rate Decision Actual: 2% Expected: 2% Previous: 2%
  • 🇳🇴 Norges Bank Interest Rate Decision Actual: 0.25% Expected: 0.25% Previous: 0%
  • 💶 Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash (SEP) Actual: 58.7 Expected: 60.3 Previous: 61.4
  • 💶 Markit Composite PMI Flash (SEP) Actual: 56.1 Expected: 58.5 Previous: 59
  • Heads Up:🇵🇭 Interest Rate Decision due at 08:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 2% Previous: 2%
NZD/USD Rally Vulnerable Ahead of 7300- New Zealand CPI on Tap

NZD/USD Rally Vulnerable Ahead of 7300- New Zealand CPI on Tap

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Talking Points



Technical Outlook: Kiwi is up more than 4.6% year-to-date with the rally now eyeing key technical resistance at 7292/96 heading into tonight’s New Zealand Consumer Price Index (CPI). This level is defined by the March 2015 low-day close & the July high-day close and converges on former channel support over the next few days. The immediate long-bias is at risk while below this threshold.

NZDUSD 120min

NZD/USD 120min

Notes: A closer look at price action shows Kiwi trading within the confines of an ascending pitchfork formation extending off the December lows with the overnight stretch-high tagging the upper parallel. We still could see some further upside from here but the risk for a near-term exhaustion prevails while below 7292/96. A break below the median-line targets 7186 & the lower parallel / weekly open at 7162. Ultimately a break below this region would be needed to suggest a more significant turn is underway.

A rally surpassing 7300 would invalidate the reversal play with such a scenario targeting 7352 & 7400. Keep in mind inflation is expected to uptick to 1.2% y/y, up from just 0.4% y/y in Q3 and would be the highest print since June of 2014. From a trading standpoint, heading into the release I would be looking for exhaustion while below 7300.

NZD/USD Rally Vulnerable Ahead of 7300- New Zealand CPI on Tap
  • A summary of the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows traders are short NZD/USD - the ratio stands at -1.64 (38% of traders are long)- bullish reading
  • Long positions are 2.6% higher than yesterday and 13.6% above levels seen last week
  • Short positions are 2.4% lower than yesterday but 1.1% above levels seen last week
  • Open interest is 0.6% lower than yesterday but remains 4.3% above its monthly average
  • The current dynamic offers a mixed signal but it’s worth noting that increasing long positions / narrowing in the SSI ratio from recent January extremes (-1.88) suggest that the immediate advance is vulnerable near-term, especially as price approaches technical resistance.

Relevant Data Releases

NZD/USD Rally Vulnerable Ahead of 7300- New Zealand CPI on Tap

Looking for trade ideas? Review DailyFX’s 2017 1Q Projections

Other Setups in Play:

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michaelon Twitter @MBForex contact him at or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.