We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bullish
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The European Commission proposed an ambitious recovery fund, containing the key parts of the Franco-German aid package with grants at EUR 500bln and loans at EUR 250bln. Get your $EURUSD update from @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/LmIaveRajb https://t.co/LWTBVLIDBf
  • The trio of central banks overseeing the commodity currencies have already cut their main rates to all-time lows. Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here: https://t.co/OSUXrN5P3j https://t.co/3nwDel6e28
  • The tension from March continues to subside, allowing for the $USD to slide to fresh two-month-lows. Get your currencies market update from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/bRSRjUqg6Z https://t.co/Q35YpIZEd2
  • López Obrador hopes #USMCA will help tighten trade relationships between the US and Mexico. Get your currencies market update from @HathornSabin here: https://t.co/bZrUKSCGaS https://t.co/MZ7UoiWWRj
  • The $AUD may suffer as relations between Australia and China deteriorate amid dwindling growth prospects. Euro traders will be closely watching progress in talks about a €500b recovery fund proposal. Get your market update from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/LkEFJViPWY https://t.co/sofO135ElG
  • The US Dollar could rise against #ASEAN currencies such as the Singapore Dollar as US-China tensions seem to escalate. The Indian Rupee is also looking ahead of local 1Q GDP data. Get your ASEAN currencies market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/LkEFJViPWY https://t.co/ZGFaQQ3Hr2
  • The #Euro is the big driver here for DXY as it is 57% of the index. It is rising now and trying to break above the March 27 high at 11147. Get your $EURUSD technical analysis from @PaulRobinsonFX here:https://t.co/6gt3F9LuGP https://t.co/73SaL5AeXD
  • U.S. Market Analyst at https://t.co/JsVsSmefgR, Shain Vernier covers - ✔️ Safe haven assets in volatile markets ✔️ Central banks and governments ✔️ How will commodities trade in a recession Only on Trading Global Markets Decoded #podcast. Tune in here: https://t.co/1UmEzEbwiy https://t.co/EIC9YqfTec
  • Anybody else think that casting directors in movies are some of the most underrated people when it comes to giving a film/series credit?
  • No https://t.co/EoBltaP17k
NZD/USD Rally Vulnerable Ahead of 7300- New Zealand CPI on Tap

NZD/USD Rally Vulnerable Ahead of 7300- New Zealand CPI on Tap

2017-01-25 17:29:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
Share:

Talking Points

NZD/USD Daily

NZD/USD Daily

Technical Outlook: Kiwi is up more than 4.6% year-to-date with the rally now eyeing key technical resistance at 7292/96 heading into tonight’s New Zealand Consumer Price Index (CPI). This level is defined by the March 2015 low-day close & the July high-day close and converges on former channel support over the next few days. The immediate long-bias is at risk while below this threshold.

NZDUSD 120min

NZD/USD 120min

Notes: A closer look at price action shows Kiwi trading within the confines of an ascending pitchfork formation extending off the December lows with the overnight stretch-high tagging the upper parallel. We still could see some further upside from here but the risk for a near-term exhaustion prevails while below 7292/96. A break below the median-line targets 7186 & the lower parallel / weekly open at 7162. Ultimately a break below this region would be needed to suggest a more significant turn is underway.

A rally surpassing 7300 would invalidate the reversal play with such a scenario targeting 7352 & 7400. Keep in mind inflation is expected to uptick to 1.2% y/y, up from just 0.4% y/y in Q3 and would be the highest print since June of 2014. From a trading standpoint, heading into the release I would be looking for exhaustion while below 7300.

NZD/USD Rally Vulnerable Ahead of 7300- New Zealand CPI on Tap
  • A summary of the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows traders are short NZD/USD - the ratio stands at -1.64 (38% of traders are long)- bullish reading
  • Long positions are 2.6% higher than yesterday and 13.6% above levels seen last week
  • Short positions are 2.4% lower than yesterday but 1.1% above levels seen last week
  • Open interest is 0.6% lower than yesterday but remains 4.3% above its monthly average
  • The current dynamic offers a mixed signal but it’s worth noting that increasing long positions / narrowing in the SSI ratio from recent January extremes (-1.88) suggest that the immediate advance is vulnerable near-term, especially as price approaches technical resistance.

Relevant Data Releases

NZD/USD Rally Vulnerable Ahead of 7300- New Zealand CPI on Tap

Looking for trade ideas? Review DailyFX’s 2017 1Q Projections

Other Setups in Play:

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michaelon Twitter @MBForex contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.