News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • EUR/USD tumbled last week on the day of the ECB’s latest policy announcement, and that weakness is set to continue this week as a flood of major Eurozone economic statistics is released. Get your weekly Euro forecast from @MartinSEssex here: https://t.co/9B4rJnzWuz https://t.co/ENF3xlkuyP
  • Trading bias allows traders to make informative decisions when dealing in the market. This relates to both novice and experienced traders alike. Start learning how you may be able to make more informed decisions here: https://t.co/rz7fqi8ZEe https://t.co/Gps2Xp32h9
  • Greed is a natural human emotion that affects individuals to varying degrees. Unfortunately, when viewed in the context of trading, greed has proven to be a hindrance more often than it has assisted traders. Learn how to control greed in trading here: https://t.co/kODPAfJE79 https://t.co/hftCEho1lM
  • Gold price action is primed for volatility next week with the Fed decision on deck. How real yields and the US Dollar react to fresh guidance from Fed officials will be key for gold outlook. Get your weekly gold forecast from @RichDvorakFX here: https://t.co/MzaIl7tPmZ
  • Forex liquidity makes it easy for traders to sell and buy currencies without delay, and also creates tight spreads for favorable quotes. Low costs and large scope to various markets make it the most frequently traded market in the world. Learn more here: https://t.co/arxYmtQeUn https://t.co/rFlQtyQS81
  • Canadian Dollar snapped a three-week losing streak after USD/CAD stalled at key technical resistance. Get your CAD weekly forecast from @MBForex here: https://t.co/BPHuKecwnz https://t.co/73OmuCKfU9
  • Forex quotes reflect the price of different currencies at any point in time. Since a trader’s profit or loss is determined by movements in price, it is essential to develop a sound understanding of how to read currency pairs. Learn how to read quotes here: https://t.co/CNtqrKWDBY https://t.co/KzhQnGiLyt
  • A currency carry trade involves borrowing a low-yielding currency in order to buy a higher yielding currency in an attempt to profit from the interest rate differential. Find out if the carry trade suits your trading style here: https://t.co/7t4BzmLg8w https://t.co/cuneuJNZlH
  • Get your snapshot update of the of top level exchanges and key index performance from around the globe here: https://t.co/d8Re5anlG5 https://t.co/danCiP5vqK
  • Traders utilize varying time frames to speculate in the forex market. The two most common are long- and short-term-time frames which transmits through to trend and trigger charts. Learn more about time-frame analysis here: https://t.co/9S5tXIs3SX https://t.co/JhYoQ7I19K
AUD/USD Risks Exhaustion on Record Low Core Inflation

AUD/USD Risks Exhaustion on Record Low Core Inflation

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Talking Points

AUD/USD 240min

AUD/USD 240min Chart

Technical Outlook: We presented this setup in week’s analyst pick, and heading into tonight’s Australia Consumer Price Index (CPI), the outlook remains the same. Aussie is up nearly 6% off the monthly lows and the immediate advance is vulnerable near-term sub-7600 with ongoing momentum divergence further highlighting this risk. That said, it’s important to keep in mind the broader focus remains higher while above the median-line extending off the November low which converges on the 50% retracement at 7384(bullish invalidation).

Interim support rests at 7503 backed by the median-line confluence at ~7473 and the 38.2% retracement at 7437. Note that we’ll need to modify this retracement in the event a new high is registered. A breach above the upper parallel shifts the focus towards topside resistance targets at 7643, the August high-day close at 7699 & critical resistance into 7735/56.

Remember, that markets are already expecting core inflation (Trimmed Mean) to dip to its lowest read on record at just 1.6% y/y (down from a previous low of 1.7%)- this will be the focus print heading into the release and a miss may be just the event needed to trigger a near-term correction. Ultimately, a pullback into structural support (currently just below 7400) would be seen as an opportunity for the long-side.

AUD/USD SSI
  • A summary of the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows traders are short AUD/USD - the ratio stands at -1.15 (47% of traders are long)- weak bullish reading
  • Long positions are 7.5% higher than yesterday and 14.8% above levels seen last week
  • Short positions are a mere 1.7% lower than yesterday but 3% above levels seen last week
  • Open interest is 2.4% higher than yesterday and 7.6% above its monthly average
  • The current dynamic of increasing long positions on building open interest does leave the advance vulnerable near-term. Look for a build in net short exposure to further support the broader advance seen off the monthly low.

Relevant Data Releases

AUD/USD Risks Exhaustion on Record Low Core Inflation

Looking for trade ideas? Review DailyFX’s 2017 1Q Projections

Other Setups in Play:

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michaelon Twitter @MBForex contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES