News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • It seems the markets are riding high, but risk is always lurking around the corner. Consider your escape plan before you find yourself in collapsing market. What are the top havens for different conditions in 2020? Find out from @JohnKicklighter here: https://t.co/1oeXWEsJkb https://t.co/x8uyOHLtgE
  • The Swiss Franc may continue higher against the US Dollar as technical pressure favors USD/CHF bears..Get your $USDCHF market update from @FxWestwater here:https://t.co/yqJbbhAWiu https://t.co/CaMR0Vqd1m
  • The US Dollar lost ground to most ASEAN currencies as Emerging Market assets climbed despite US economic woes. USD/INR is eyeing third-quarter Indian GDP at the end of the week. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/urDN2b5Nwd https://t.co/toSDbVZCSi
  • The global stock market can be categorized into specific groups or ‘stock market sectors’. Organizing the vast number of stocks in this way helps traders to view assets in a more manageable way. Get your stock market sectors basics here: https://t.co/5gbiHmY8yl https://t.co/mQ6ty8Yalv
  • The Euro looks poised to continue gaining ground against haven-associated currencies and may reverse higher against the British Pound in the near term. Get your #Euro market update from @DanielGMoss here:https://t.co/oRIHju7ZzK https://t.co/dIEErVzWEY
  • Gold and silver prices have come under significant pressure recently. However, this correction lower could prove short-lived as price analysis hints at a reversal higher. Get your $XAUUSD market update from @DanielGMoss here:https://t.co/K1qL0fsGwy https://t.co/tRfjlN6X22
  • The S&P 500, Dow Jones and crude oil prices have recently made critical advances to the upside. Is retail positioning supporting the case for further upside momentum?https://t.co/rfA2TsBctB https://t.co/SNoOEVLXvA
  • An improving economic backdrop is bolstering crude oil prices and in turn, the Canadian Dollar. Still, the risk-sensitive Australian Dollar continues to move higher. Get your market update from @FxWestwater here:https://t.co/NJ683bZKpe https://t.co/zt3bYddjZ6
  • Gold Price Forecast: Dovish FOMC Could Underpin Bullion Ahead of NFP - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/chf/2020/11/27/Gold-Price-Forecast-Dovish-FOMC-Could-Underpin-Bullion-Ahead-of-NFP.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Moss&utm_campaign=twr #Gold #XAUUSD $GOLD $GLD https://t.co/N9ChZOqSdy
  • Forex Update: As of 21:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇪🇺EUR: 0.42% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.35% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.30% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.20% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.16% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.33% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/4uyJxc09OH
AUD/USD Risks Exhaustion on Record Low Core Inflation

AUD/USD Risks Exhaustion on Record Low Core Inflation

2017-01-24 18:01:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
Share:

Talking Points

AUD/USD 240min

AUD/USD 240min Chart

Technical Outlook: We presented this setup in week’s analyst pick, and heading into tonight’s Australia Consumer Price Index (CPI), the outlook remains the same. Aussie is up nearly 6% off the monthly lows and the immediate advance is vulnerable near-term sub-7600 with ongoing momentum divergence further highlighting this risk. That said, it’s important to keep in mind the broader focus remains higher while above the median-line extending off the November low which converges on the 50% retracement at 7384(bullish invalidation).

Interim support rests at 7503 backed by the median-line confluence at ~7473 and the 38.2% retracement at 7437. Note that we’ll need to modify this retracement in the event a new high is registered. A breach above the upper parallel shifts the focus towards topside resistance targets at 7643, the August high-day close at 7699 & critical resistance into 7735/56.

Remember, that markets are already expecting core inflation (Trimmed Mean) to dip to its lowest read on record at just 1.6% y/y (down from a previous low of 1.7%)- this will be the focus print heading into the release and a miss may be just the event needed to trigger a near-term correction. Ultimately, a pullback into structural support (currently just below 7400) would be seen as an opportunity for the long-side.

AUD/USD SSI
  • A summary of the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows traders are short AUD/USD - the ratio stands at -1.15 (47% of traders are long)- weak bullish reading
  • Long positions are 7.5% higher than yesterday and 14.8% above levels seen last week
  • Short positions are a mere 1.7% lower than yesterday but 3% above levels seen last week
  • Open interest is 2.4% higher than yesterday and 7.6% above its monthly average
  • The current dynamic of increasing long positions on building open interest does leave the advance vulnerable near-term. Look for a build in net short exposure to further support the broader advance seen off the monthly low.

Relevant Data Releases

AUD/USD Risks Exhaustion on Record Low Core Inflation

Looking for trade ideas? Review DailyFX’s 2017 1Q Projections

Other Setups in Play:

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michaelon Twitter @MBForex contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES