We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Bitcoin
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • EU said to see Brexit deal impossible unless UK moves $GBP
  • LIVE IN 30 MIN: Currency Strategist @PaulRobinsonFX discusses important technical developments relevant to short to intermediate-term commodity and equity index traders here - https://www.dailyfx.com/webinars/816147795?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr
  • Heads Up:🇪🇺 EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (YoY) (SEP F) due at 09:00 GMT (15min), Actual: N/A Expected: 0.9% Previous: 1.0% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2019-10-16
  • Heads Up:🇪🇺 EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (MoM) (SEP) due at 09:00 GMT (15min), Actual: N/A Expected: 0.2% Previous: 0.1% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2019-10-16
  • Heads Up:🇪🇺 EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) (SEP F) due at 09:00 GMT (15min), Actual: N/A Expected: 1.0% Previous: 1.0% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2019-10-16
  • DUP's Wilson says no amount of money would offset damage to the union $GBP
  • Have you been catching on your @DailyFX #podcast "Global Markets Decoded"? Catch up on them now, before new episodes release! https://t.co/mk1w1DM2Rh https://t.co/Ltog71RlLW
  • Join @PaulRobinsonFX 's #webinar at 5:30 AM ET/9:30 AM GMT to gain insight on indices and commodities for the active trader. Register here: https://t.co/gghsFsZYlx https://t.co/cLc5sEtI1R
  • UK's Francois says he hopes the ERG will be able to approve the deal $GBP
  • Heads Up:🇬🇧 GBP House Price Index (YoY) (AUG) due at 08:30 GMT (15min), Actual: N/A Expected: 0.6% Previous: 0.7% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2019-10-16
3Q GDP, OPEC to Drive USD/CAD Volatility- Shorts at Risk into 1.3370

3Q GDP, OPEC to Drive USD/CAD Volatility- Shorts at Risk into 1.3370

2016-11-29 19:04:00
Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist
Share:

Talking Points

  • USD/CAD correction targeting initial support- CAD GDP, OPEC meeting on tap
  • Updated targets & invalidation levels
  • Click Here to be added to Michael’s email distribution list.

USD/CAD 120min

USD/CAD 120min Chart

Technical Outlook: Loonie has continued to trade within the confines of these descending slope lines highlighted last week. A critical support zone (near-term bullish invalidation) rests at 1.3388where the 61.8% retracement converges on a pair of long & short-term median lines. Note that this levels is backed closely by confluence Fibonacci support at 1.3367/76 and a daily close below this threshold would be needed to validate abreak with such a scenario targeting subsequent support objectives at 1.3314, 1.3259 & 1.3231.

That said, the immediate short-side bias is at risk while above this key support zone with interim resistance seen at the weekly open / upper parallel at 1.3498. A breach above 1.3539 is needed to signal continuation of the broader uptrend targeting 1.3575. From a trading standpoint, heading into Canada’s 3Q GDP report I would be looking to fade weakness while above this 1.3367.

Keep in mind that the growth rate is expected to recover to an annualized rate of 3.4% from previous contraction of 1.6% (beleaguered by the Alberta fires). The OPEC meeting in Vienna will also be central focus tomorrow and could charge additional volatility in Crude & CAD crosses – keep an eye on the Real-Time News feed for headlines.

USD/CAD SSI
  • A summary of the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows traders are net short USD/CAD- the ratio stands at -1.31 (43% of traders are long)- weak bullish reading
  • Long positions are 4.7% lower than yesterday and 7.9% below levels seen last week
  • Short positions are 9.6% higher than yesterday but 4.3% below levels seen last week
  • Open interest remains subdued at 5.9% below its monthly average
  • The current dynamic of building short-exposure suggests the immediate risk remains higher- That said, it’s worth noting that as SSI continues to come off the recent extreme (-2.45), a move out of negative territory may mimic market conditions during the mid-October decline when traders flipped net long. In that instance, the pair snapped back from a fresh monthly low (where traders turned net-short following the move) before rebounding sharply to new highs.

Relevant Data Releases

3Q GDP, OPEC to Drive USD/CAD Volatility- Shorts at Risk into 1.3370

Looking for trade ideas? Review DailyFX’s 2016 4Q Projections

Other Setups in Play:

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Join Michael for Live Weekly Trading Webinars on Mondays on DailyFX at 13:30 GMT (8:30ET)

FollowMichael on Twitter @MBForex or contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.