Talking Points
- EURGBP Focus is lower ahead of UK employment data
- Updated targets & invalidation levels
- Looking for trade ideas? Review DailyFX’s 2016 4Q Projections
Technical Outlook: EURGBP turned from a long-term Fibonacci level last month at 9191 with the decline continuing to respect these slope-lines derived off the 10/11 high. Heading into tomorrow’s UK Jobless claims, the focus remains lower while below the 2013 high at 8815 with upcoming support targets eyed at 8479/91 & 8349 – both areas of interest for near-term exhaustion.
EURGBP 240min
Notes: Initial resistance (and the weekly opening-range high) stands at 8709/39 Fibonacci zone backed by our near-term bearish invalidation level at 8815. From a trading standpoint, I’d be looking to fade strength into the lower parallels with initial targets eyed at the 8479 support confluence.A break below this level risks a larger correction towards 8415 and more significant support into 8349. A breach / close above 8969 would be needed to shift the broader focus back to the topside in EURGBP.
- A summary of the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows traders are net short EURGBP- the ration stands at -1.98 (34% of traders are long)- weak bullish reading
- Long positions are 38.1% above levels seen last week while short positions are 35.2% lower over the same time period.
- Open interest remains low at 25.2% below its monthly average.
- The current dynamic of building long-positioning suggests that retail crowds are attempting fade this decline, leaving the risk for further losses near-term. Look for an increase in short-exposure as price approaches support for indications that the decline may be reaching near-term exhaustion.
Relevant Data Releases
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---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX
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