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EUR/GBP Eyeing Support Targets Ahead of UK Jobless Claims

EUR/GBP Eyeing Support Targets Ahead of UK Jobless Claims

2016-11-15 18:38:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist

Talking Points

  • EURGBP Focus is lower ahead of UK employment data
  • Updated targets & invalidation levels
  • Looking for trade ideas? Review DailyFX’s 2016 4Q Projections

EUR/GBP Daily

EUR/GBP Daily Chart

Technical Outlook: EURGBP turned from a long-term Fibonacci level last month at 9191 with the decline continuing to respect these slope-lines derived off the 10/11 high. Heading into tomorrow’s UK Jobless claims, the focus remains lower while below the 2013 high at 8815 with upcoming support targets eyed at 8479/91 & 8349 – both areas of interest for near-term exhaustion.

EURGBP 240min

EUR/GBP 240min Chart

Notes: Initial resistance (and the weekly opening-range high) stands at 8709/39 Fibonacci zone backed by our near-term bearish invalidation level at 8815. From a trading standpoint, I’d be looking to fade strength into the lower parallels with initial targets eyed at the 8479 support confluence.A break below this level risks a larger correction towards 8415 and more significant support into 8349. A breach / close above 8969 would be needed to shift the broader focus back to the topside in EURGBP.

EURGBP SSI
  • A summary of the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows traders are net short EURGBP- the ration stands at -1.98 (34% of traders are long)- weak bullish reading
  • Long positions are 38.1% above levels seen last week while short positions are 35.2% lower over the same time period.
  • Open interest remains low at 25.2% below its monthly average.
  • The current dynamic of building long-positioning suggests that retail crowds are attempting fade this decline, leaving the risk for further losses near-term. Look for an increase in short-exposure as price approaches support for indications that the decline may be reaching near-term exhaustion.

Relevant Data Releases

EURGBP Economic Docket

Other Setups in Play:

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

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