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Election Road Map for USD/CAD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY & Gold

Election Road Map for USD/CAD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY & Gold

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Talking Points

  • Observations on the majors ahead of the U.S. Presidential Election
  • Updated targets & invalidation levels
  • Event Risk on Tap ThisWeek



Chart Created Using TradingView

Technical Outlook: USDCAD responded to confluence resistance last week at 1.3457- A region defined by the September 2015 high, a sliding parallel extending off the June 16th high and basic channel resistance extending off the May high. The risk remains for a pullback while below this region with a break below the 1.33-handle risking a more meaningful correction lower in the pair. A breach of the highs invalidates the reversal play with such a scenario targeting 1.3575.



Technical Outlook: Kiwi is trading just below a key resistance confluence at 7380 heading into the U.S. Presidential Elections and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) interest rate decision the tomorrow. The focus remains on a reaction off this zone with the immediate topside bias at risk while price is below. Interim support remains at 7292/95 with key support still down at 7214/18. A topside breach targets 7450 & 7480.



Technical Outlook: USDJPY gapped back into this ascending pitchfork formation with the subsequent rally now approaching the October close highs at 105.28 which is backed closely the May Low at 105.55. The topside bias is at risk heading into these levels with a break of the weekly opening-range low needed to shift the focus back towards key support 102.80 where the 100-day moving average converges on a basic 50% retracement of the late-September advance. A breach higher shifts the focus towards confluence resistance objectives at 106.60 & 107.44.

Gold Daily

Gold Daily

Technical Outlook: Gold is trading just above near-term support at 1272/75- this region is defined by the basic channel support, the 50% retracement of the October advance and converges on a pair of longer-term median lines. A break below this region shifts the medium-term focus lower in gold targeting 1249 backed by the median-line confluence down at ~1236. Interim resistance steady at 1303.

Other Setups in Play:

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---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.