We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bullish
Gold
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • President Trump says the EU charges US seafood tariffs it doesn't charge Canada, threatens EU auto tariff if the EU does not lower lobster levy Just when things were settling down somewhat, it seems we now have the possibility of a US-EU trade war $DAX $SPY
  • Trump threatens auto tariffs on the EU in response to the levy on lobsters - BBG
  • Rising confidence: US 10-Y yield most since MAR 20 #Gold fell to lowest since mid-April #NFP #XAUUSD https://t.co/F04ZibU3jB
  • Commodities Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: -0.29% Silver: -1.94% Gold: -2.00% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/HJrG1dsfDg
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.09%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 74.34%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/tR5eXKFLr8
  • Fed pace of Treasury purchases slows from $4.5bn per day to $4bn per day $DXY $TNX
  • Indices Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Wall Street: 3.42% US 500: 2.83% FTSE 100: -0.29% France 40: -0.35% Germany 30: -0.45% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/6gY6a50DZf
  • I think the most surprising thing about the #JobsReport (of many) is that the US added 2.5m jobs in May despite over 9.2m jobless claims accumulated over the same period. The less-dismal #ADP estimate earlier this week turned out to be closer to reality - https://t.co/g7uTy2sI9L
  • US Treasury Yields: 2-Year: 0.214% 3-Year: 0.294% 5-Year: 0.481% 7-Year: 0.728% 10-Year: 0.922% 30-Year: 1.704% $TNX
  • AUD/USD hit its highest level since the beginning of January, having rose to a high of 0.7012, eyes now for a move to 0.7020 to offer resistance in the pair. Get your $AUDUSD market update from @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/GCNPNSgdc1 https://t.co/qBPoahTWqf
Is the Bow About to Break? GBP/JPY at Support Ahead of Super Thursday

Is the Bow About to Break? GBP/JPY at Support Ahead of Super Thursday

2016-11-02 17:00:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
Share:

Talking Points

  • GBP/JPY at support heading into BoE ‘Super Thursday’
  • Immediate focus is lower sub 128.18
  • Updated targets & invalidation levels

GBP/JPY 120min

Is the Bow About to Break? GBP/JPY at Support Ahead of Super Thursday

Chart Created Using TradingView

Technical Outlook: GBP/JPY is trading within the confines of a modified ascending pitchfork formation off the October low with the pair testing confluence support today at 126.71- a region defined by the 50% retracement of the late-October rally and the lower parallel. Heading into tomorrow’s highly anticipated Bank of England ‘Super Thursday’ the pair remains at risk while sub-128.18/31 (near-term bearish invalidation).

Subsequent support targets are eyed at 126.41 backed closely by confluence support into 126.12 (area of interest for possible exhaustion). A break below this region risks substantial losses for the pair with such a scenario targeting 125.27 & the 2016 low at 124.79. From a trading standpoint, I would be looking to fade strength while below the median-line / monthly open with a break below the lower parallel needed to keep the short-side focus in play.

Keep in mind the central bank is widely expected to stand pat on monetary policy this month and the focus will be on the quarterly inflation forecast. Market participants are looking for an improved inflationary outlook on account of the sharp repricing seen in the sterling over the past few months and could put a near-term floor on the sterling crosses.

GBP/JPY SSI Metrics
  • A summary of the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows traders are net long GBPJPY- the ratio stands at +2.54 (72% of traders are long)- bearish reading
  • Long positions are 11.4% above levels seen last week while short positions are 26.3% lower over the same time period.
  • Open interest is 1.0% higher than yesterday and 4.6% below its monthly average.
  • The current dynamic suggests that the near-term risk remains weighted to the downside heading into tomorrow’s rate decision and we’ll be looking for a further build in long-exposure with a break below near-term support to validate a more significant decline.

Help fine-tune you entries, click here to learn more about the DailyFX Grid Sight Index (GSI)

Relevant Data Releases This Week

UK Economic Docket

Other Setups in Play:

Looking for more trade ideas? Review DailyFX’s Top Trading Opportunity of 2016

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michaelon Twitter @MBForex contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list

Join Michael for Live Scalping Webinars on Mondays at 8:30amET.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.