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All Eyes on Key NZD/USD Inflection Point Going Into NFP

All Eyes on Key NZD/USD Inflection Point Going Into NFP

2016-10-06 18:00:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist

Talking Points

  • NZD/USD sell-off testing support ahead of U.S. NFP
  • Risk for near-term rebound - broader focus remains lower sub-7300
  • Updated targets & invalidation levels


NZD/USD Daily Chart

Chart Created Using TradingView

Broader Technical Outlook: Last month we highlighted the risk for a pullback in Kiwi heading into the RBNZ interest rate decision with the subsequent decline now coming into our final target at slope support / 7155. Note that the pair marked an outside-day reversal off resistance at 7300 early in the week, keeping the short-bias in play. That said, the focus is on this confluence support region heading into tomorrow’s key event risk.

Heading into the Non-Farm Payrolls release, the immediate short-bias is at risk while above the 100% extension at 7119. Interim resistance stands at 7214/19 backed by 7254 with our bearish invalidation level steady at 7296. Ultimately we would be looking to sell a rally with a break lower targeting subsequent support objectives at 7086, 7050 & the median-line confluence just above the 70-handle.

NZDUSD 120min

NZD/USD 120min Chart

Chart Created Using TradingView

Notes: There’s Power in Parallels - we’ve been tracking this decline for the past few weeks and Kiwi has continued to respect this slope off the September high. The pair is marking bullish divergence into these lows and we’ll be on the lookout for a near-term rebound in price. From a trading standpoint, heading into tomorrow’s event risk I would be looking to fade strength into structural resistance. To continue tracking this trade & more setups throughout the week- Subscribe to SB Trade Desk.

  • A summary of the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows traders are net longNZDUSD- the ratio stands at +1.22 (55% of traders are long)
  • Long positions are 34.3% above levels seen last week while short positions are 18.8% lower over the same time period.
  • Open interest is 3.2% lower than yesterday and 3.3% above its monthly average.
  • Throughout 2016 SSI has been capped largely capped by the late-January extreme (+1.33) and each time sentiment has stretched into these levels, a low in price was registered shortly after. That said, the recent dynamic suggests that the near-term short-bias is vulnerable as the pair trades into support.

Help fine-tune you entries, click here to learn more about the DailyFX Grid Sight Index (GSI)

Relevant Data Releases This Week

NZD/USD Economic Docket

Other Setups in Play:

Looking for more trade ideas? Review DailyFX’s Top Trading Opportunity of 2016

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.