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Talking Points

  • NZDUSD at risk ahead of RBNZ
  • Updated targets & invalidation levels

NZDUSD 120min

NZD/USD: Near-term Range Braces for RBNZ; Key Resistance 7450

Chart Created Using TradingView

Technical Outlook: Heading into the RBNZ interest rate decision shortly after the New York close, Kiwi continues to hold below former trendline support, now resistance. On whole the pair has setup a well-defined weekly opening-range and we’ll be looking for a break heading into the release.

Kiwi is now testing resistance on the back today’s FOMC policy meeting with a breach here targeting 7390 & key resistance at the 2016 high-day close at 7449. Interim support rests at 7292/96 backed by the weekly & monthly opens at 7248/56- a break below this region would be needed to shift the focus lower targeting 7218 & the 61.8% retracement at 7155. From a trading standpoint, I would be looking for near-term strength to offer favorable short entries while below the high-day close. For the complete setup and to continue tracking this trade & more throughout the week- Subscribe to SB Trade Desk.

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NZD/USD: Near-term Range Braces for RBNZ; Key Resistance 7450
  • A summary of the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows traders are net shortNZDUSD- the ratio stands at -1.39 (42% of traders are long)- bullish reading
  • Long positions are 7.5% above levels seen last week while short positions are 17.3note% higher over the same time period.
  • Open interest is 6.7% lower than yesterday and 13.1% below its monthly average.
  • Note that SSI has continued to come off extremes since the high registered earlier this month and although retail traders remains net short, the risk remains for a move lower while below key resistance.

Help fine-tune you entries, click here to learn more about the DailyFX Grid Sight Index (GSI)

Relevant Data Releases This Week

NZD/USD: Near-term Range Braces for RBNZ; Key Resistance 7450

Other Setups in Play:

Looking for more trade ideas? Review DailyFX’s Top Trading Opportunity of 2016

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

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