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AUD/USD to Face Employment Report- Outlook Constructive Above 0.7380

AUD/USD to Face Employment Report- Outlook Constructive Above 0.7380

Michael Boutros,

Talking Points

  • AUDUSD eyes critical support zone ahead of Australia jobs report
  • Updated targets & invalidation levels

AUD/USD 120min

AUD/USD 120min Chart

Chart Created Using TradingView

Technical Outlook: The Aussie outlook remains largely unchanged from late-last month and heading into tonight’s Australian employment report I’m on the lookout for a possible drop into a critical support zone at 7380-7408. This level is defined by the lower median-line parallel of the near-term descending pitchfork & the 61.8% retracement of the advance off the May low and converge on a longer-term key structural support extending off the yearly low.

From a trading standpoint I would be looking to fade weakness into this critical support zone with interim resistance seen at 7493 backed by the weekly opening at 7538. A breach above the weekly opening-range high at 7568 would be needed to validate the reversal higher in Aussie. For the complete setup and to continue tracking this trade & more throughout the week- Subscribe to SB Trade Desk.

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  • A summary of the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows traders are net longAUDUSD- the ratio stands at 1.72 (63% of traders are long)- bearish reading
  • Long positions are 33.2% above levels seen last week while Short positions are 42.4% lower over the same time period.
  • Open interest is 3.5% higher than yesterday and 5.1% below its monthly average.
  • The recent flip to net-long exposure leaves the near-term pullback at risk. Note that SSI peaked at +2.50 in January as AUD/USD marked the 2016-low. As a result, a further build-up of long-positions would further support the notion of a turn in price as the exchange rate approaches key support.

Help fine-tune you entries, click here to learn more about the DailyFX Grid Sight Index (GSI)

Relevant Data Releases This Week

Other Setups in Play:

Looking for more trade ideas? Review DailyFX’s Top Trading Opportunity of 2016

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.