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USD/CAD in Free Fall: 9-Days Down Ahead of Canada CPI, Retail Sales

USD/CAD in Free Fall: 9-Days Down Ahead of Canada CPI, Retail Sales

2016-08-18 18:10:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
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Talking Points

  • USD/CAD holding within bearish formation ahead of CAD CPI, Retail Sales
  • Updated targets & invalidation levels

USDCAD 60min

USD/CAD in Free Fall: 9-Days Down Ahead of Canada CPI, Retail Sales

Chart Created Using TradingView

Technical Outlook: USDCAD continues to trade within the confines of a well-defined descending channel formation off last week’s high with the decline now approaching initial support at the key 61.8% retracement of the advance off the 2016 low at 1.2764. Heading into tomorrow morning’s Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI) & retail sales release, the focus remains lower while below channel resistance / 1.2832 with broader bearish invalidation eyed at the 1.2924 resistance confluence.

A break lower targets the 2016 low-day closer at 1.2723 & the June low-day close at 1.2692 – both areas of interest for possible short exhaustion / long-entries. Keep in mind that today will mark the ninth consecutive day of declines- previous instances have seen near-term interruptions before continuing lower. From a trading standpoint, I would be looking to fade strength while below 1.2830, ultimately looking for long-entries lower down into structural support. For the complete setup and to continue tracking this trade& more throughout the week- Subscribe to SB Trade Deskand take advantage of the DailyFX New Subscriber Discount.

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USD/CAD in Free Fall: 9-Days Down Ahead of Canada CPI, Retail Sales
  • A summary of the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI)shows traders are net long USDCAD- the ratio stands at +1.85 (65% of traders are long)- bearish reading
  • Yesterday the ratio was 1.57. Long positions are 13.9% higher than yesterday and 21.3% above levels seen last week.
  • Open interest is 7.1% higher than yesterday and 9.5% above its monthly average.
  • Current retail positioning keeps the focus lower for now and we’ll be looking for a build in bullish sentiment heading into fresh monthly lows for signs that the short-side bias may be waning.

Help fine-tune you entries, click here to learn more about the DailyFX Grid Sight Index (GSI)

Relevant Data Releases This Week

USD/CAD in Free Fall: 9-Days Down Ahead of Canada CPI, Retail Sales

Other Setups in Play:

Looking for more trade ideas? Review DailyFX’s Top Trading Opportunity of 2016

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michaelon Twitter @MBForex contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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