Talking Points
EURUSD 120min
Chart Created Using TradingView
Technical Outlook: Earlier in the month I noted a key support confluence & near-term bullish invalidation level at 1.1060 for the EURUSD heading into the NFP release. We’ve been tracking the rebound off that mark on SB Trade Desk ever since with the topside now starting to look vulnerable near-term heading into tomorrow’s release of the July U.S. Consumer Price Index.
The slope identified into the close of last month has continued to define price action with precision with the 50-line continuing to highlight a key near-term resistance confluence at 1.1228/31. Immediate support rests with the monthly open at 1.1170 with our near-term bullish invalidation now raised to Friday’s low / slope support at 1.1131.
From a trading standpoint, heading into the release I would be looking to fade weakness while within this near-term formation. For the complete setup and to continue tracking this trade& more throughout the week- Subscribe to SB Trade Deskand take advantage of the DailyFX New Subscriber Discount.
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- A summary of the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows traders are net short EURUSD- the ratio stands at -1.52(40% of traders are long)-bullishreading
- Yesterday the ratio was -1.39. Short positions are 1.6% higher than yesterday and 18.2% above levels seen last week.
- Open interest is 2.1% lower than yesterday and 0.5% below its monthly average.
- The recent build in short-interest strengthens the near-term topside bias. Keep in mind the last few SSI dips into extremes of -2 or below have been accompanied by near-term peaks in price. We’ll continue to track this for signs of near-term exhaustion on this recent rally.
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Relevant Data Releases This Week
Other Setups in Play:
- Webinar: USD Crosses in Focus- Levels to Know Ahead of CPI
- USD/JPY Range at Risk as Retail FX Sentiment Comes Off Extremes
- AUD/NZD Snaps Back from Slope Support Ahead of Retail Sales
- NZD/USD to Face-Off as Wheeler Deals Rate Cut
- USDCAD Advance Vulnerable Sub 1.3186 - Look Lower to Get Long
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---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX
Follow Michaelon Twitter @MBForex contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list
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