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Post-Brexit NZDUSD Support Vulnerable to Weak NZ Trade Balance

Post-Brexit NZDUSD Support Vulnerable to Weak NZ Trade Balance

2016-07-25 18:58:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist

Talking Points

  • NZD/USD targets near-term resistance ahead of CPI / Retail Sales
  • Updated targets & invalidation levels

NZDUSD 30min

Post-Brexit NZDUSD Support Vulnerable to Weak NZ Trade Balance

Chart Created Using TradingView

Technical Outlook: Kiwi is sitting just above the post-Brexit lows after rebounding off confluence support last week at 6970. The pair continues to trade within the confines of a descending median-line formation extending off the monthly highs. The immediate short-bias is at risk while above this level heading into tonight’s New Zealand Trade Balance figures. Consensus estimates are calling for a narrowing trade balance surplus from 358m to just 150m and with a contraction expected, the risk is for a stronger number to offer a near-term reprieve to the recent selling pressure.

That said, look for near-term resistance at 7013 backed by a confluence region into the median-line at 7069- an area off interest for possible exhaustion / short-entries. A breach above 7182 would be needed to shift the broader focus. From a trading standpoint, I would be looking to sell strength while below the median-line with a break lower targeting subsequent support objectives at the lower parallel, 6894 & the 2016 open at 6828. For the complete setup and to continue tracking this trade and more throughout the week- Subscribe to SB Trade Deskand take advantage of the DailyFX New Subscriber Discount.

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Post-Brexit NZDUSD Support Vulnerable to Weak NZ Trade Balance
  • A summary of the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI)shows traders are net long NZDUSD- the ratio stands at +1.09(52% of traders are long)-weak bearishreading
  • Yesterday the ratio was +1.10. Long positions are 4.2% higher than yesterday and 32.2% above levels seen last week.
  • Open interest is 4.8% higher than yesterday and 8.4% above its monthly average.
  • SSI flipped to net positive on July 22nd and although the broader outlook remains weighted to the short-side, the pair is coming into interim support & a weak SSI reading suggests the risk remains for a near-term recovery before turning lower.

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Relevant Data Releases This Week

Post-Brexit NZDUSD Support Vulnerable to Weak NZ Trade Balance

Other Setups in Play:

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---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.