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USD/CAD Eyes Key Resistance Hurdle Ahead of Canada Retail Sales/CPI

USD/CAD Eyes Key Resistance Hurdle Ahead of Canada Retail Sales/CPI

2016-07-21 19:02:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist

Talking Points

  • USD/CAD targets near-term resistance ahead of CPI / Retail Sales
  • Updated targets & invalidation levels

USDCAD 30min

USD/CAD Eyes Key Resistance Hurdle Ahead of Canada Retail Sales/CPI

Chart Created Using TradingView

Technical Outlook: USDCAD is trading within the confines of an ascending channel formation extending off last week’s low with the advance completing a 100% extension at 1.3088 earlier this week (interim resistance). Heading into tomorrow’s consumer price index (CPI) / retail sales release from Canada, the immediate focus remains higher while above near-term support at 1.3026.

That said, the pair is approaching a key resistance range at 1.3121/39 where the May high-day close & the July high converge on a pair of longer-term median-lines. A breach above this region would be needed to clear the way for the next leg higher targeting 1.3187 & the April high at 1.3219.

From a trading standpoint, heading into the release I would be looking to fade strength into the aforementioned key resistance on an exhaustion play. In the event the print prompts a break below the lower parallel, look for support at 1.2978/80 with broader bullish invalidation lower at the weekly / monthly open – 1.2924/35. For the complete setup and to continue tracking this trade and more throughout the week- Subscribe to SB Trade Deskand take advantage of the DailyFX New Subscriber Discount.

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USD/CAD Eyes Key Resistance Hurdle Ahead of Canada Retail Sales/CPI
  • A summary of the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI)shows traders are net long GBPJPY- the ratio stands at +1.01(50% of traders are long)-neutralreading
  • Yesterday the ratio was +1.07. Short positions are 8.5% higher than yesterday and 29.6% above levels seen last week.
  • Open interest is 5.8% higher than yesterday and 2.2% above its monthly average.
  • Although the current SSI standing offers limited guidance, it’s worth noting that a build in short positions alongside increasing open interest suggests the near-term risk is for a move higher in the pair heading into tomorrow’s inflation & retail sales releases.

Help fine-tune you entries, click here to learn more about the DailyFX Grid Sight Index (GSI)

Relevant Data Releases This Week

USD/CAD Eyes Key Resistance Hurdle Ahead of Canada Retail Sales/CPI

Other Setups in Play:

Looking for more trade ideas? Review DailyFX’s Top Trading Opportunity of 2016

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

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